England's Potential Route to World Cup Glory: A Supercomputer's Projection

Who will England have to beat to win the World Cup for the first time since 1966? We can’t predict the future but, with the help of the Opta supercomputer, we can give a probabilistic estimate of what could happen. Let’s establish the “what if” scenarios and map out England’s potential route to the final.

Group stage

England are the top seeds in Group L alongside Croatia, Ghana and Panama. On the face of it, it is a kind draw, and the Opta supercomputer’s numbers reflect that. Across its 10,000 tournament simulations, England made it through to the knockout stage 96% of the time and won the group in 67.9% of simulations. They are the third-likeliest side to win their group behind only Spain (75.3%) and Argentina (73.0%).

The supercomputer is less certain about who will qualify alongside England, but Croatia are deemed the next-most likely (77.8%) above Ghana (49.7%) and Panama (39.4%).

With eight teams able to qualify for the last 32 having finished third in their group, there is a strong chance only one team from Group L will be sent packing. In fact, just 12 of the 48 teams at the World Cup will be knocked out in the group stage.

If England top their group, they will face one of the eight third-placed teams in the next round. The winners of Group L will face a third-place finisher from Group E, H, I, J or K.

Last 32: England v DR Congo

The teams most likely to finish third in these groups are Côte d’Ivoire (Group E), Saudi Arabia (H), Senegal (I), Algeria (J) and DR Congo (K). Predicting who England will face in the last 32 is hard considering the 495 possible combinations, but the winners of Group L end up playing the third-placed team from Group K in 330 of them (66.7%). England are most likely to come up against DR Congo on 1 July in Atlanta.

DR Congo have only appeared in one previous World Cup, in 1974 as Zaire, when they lost all three games, failed to score and conceded 14 times. A lot has changed since then but the omens for them would not be great. England have played eight matches against African sides at World Cups and have never lost (five wins and three draws), including a 3-0 win over Senegal at the last tournament in 2022. If England were to beat DR Congo, they would face co-hosts Mexico in Mexico City on 5 July.

Last 16: England v Mexico

What a test this would be for England. Mexico are the likeliest side to top Group A (47.8%) and will expect to defeat a third-place qualifier in the round of 32. That would mean England taking on Mexico in front of a partisan crowd at the Azteca in the capital.

England’s only previous World Cup meeting with Mexico came in similar circumstances, just with roles reversed. England were hosts when the teams met in the group stage in 1966, a match England won 2-0.

England have faced three World Cup hosts. They lost 2-1 to Italy in the 1990 third-place playoff but kept a clean sheet in group matches against Spain (0-0) in 1982 and Switzerland (2-0) in 1954.

Facing Mexico is far from a given, though. Group A does not contain any of the world’s top 20 teams so could be very open and unpredictable. Mexico are the favourites to win that group, but South Africa, South Korea or Czechia could come up against England instead.

Quarter-final: England v Brazil

According to our projections, England would most likely face Brazil in the quarter-finals on 11 July in New Jersey. Brazil have won the tournament five times – a record no other country can match – but they have not won it in 24 years. That wait is not as long as England’s 60 years, though it’s significant.

If England progress to the semi-finals, there is a strong chance they will have to beat Brazil at an international tournament for the first time. England’s previous four meetings with Brazil have seen them draw once, in the 1958 group stage, and lose in 1962, 1970 and 2002. Two of those – 1962 and 2002 – were in quarter-finals, with the last featuring Ronaldinho’s infamous lob over David Seaman from long range in Japan. A victory in the quarter-finals would take England into the semi-finals for just the fourth time.

Semi-final: England v Argentina

A win over Brazil could set up a semi-final with Argentina on 15 July in Miami. The Opta supercomputer projects that both Argentina and England will be two of the four teams in the World Cup semi-finals 9.2% of the time. For that to happen, both would have to win their group and then progress through three knockout rounds.

England’s previous World Cup clashes with Argentina have been packed with incident and controversy. This would be England’s first tournament match against Argentina since David Beckham scored a match-winning penalty in their 2002 group-stage clash in the Sapporo Dome. It was redemption for Beckham, who was sent off for kicking Diego Simeone in a last-16 tie in 1998 that Argentina eventually won on penalties.

In 1986, Diego Maradona’s famous “Hand of God” goal was followed by his superb solo “Goal of the Century” to knock England out at the quarter-final stage. Twenty years earlier, England beat Argentina in the quarter-finals at Wembley, where the Argentina captain, Antonio Rattín, was sent off but refused to leave the pitch.

To continue their journey in this tournament, England may have to do something that no other team has managed in World Cup history: beat Argentina in a semi-final. They have played five semi-finals – in 1930, 1986, 1990, 2014 and 2022 – and have won them all.

England have been eliminated in their last two World Cup semi-finals, losing to Croatia in 2018 and being defeated on penalties by West Germany in 1990. They have only played in one World Cup final and they won it.

Final: England v Spain

So, could England end their 60 years of hurt and lift the trophy for a second time? Thomas Tuchel’s side reached the final in nearly a fifth of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-tournament simulations (19.0%), going on to win it 11.2% of the time. The only two teams to win the World Cup more often across the simulations were Spain (16.1%) and France (13.0%).

England faced Spain in the final in 4.8% of the 10,000 pre-tournament simulations. It would be a repeat of the Euro 2024 final, which Spain won 2-1 thanks to Mikel Oyarzabal’s 86th-minute winner. England have won just one of their last five meetings with Spain – a Nations League match in October 2018, when England raced into a 3-0 lead before holding off a Spain comeback to win 3-2. Will England avenge their Euro 2024 final defeat and repeat the success of 1966? We’ll soon find out.