Australian Minimum Wage Rises, AI Impacts Telstra, EU Gets Cybersecurity Tool

Market snapshot

D By Daniel Ziffer

ASX 200 futures: -0.4% to 8,710 points

Australian dollar: +0.1% to 71.62 US cents

Dow Jones: +0.1% to 51,078 points

S & P 500: +0.3% to 7,599 points

Nasdaq: +0.4% to 27,086 points

FTSE: -0.7% to 10,338 points

EuroStoxx: -0.8% to 621 points

Spot gold: -1.4% to $US4,468/ounce

Brent crude: +4.8% to $US95.57/barrel

Iron ore: -3.4% to $US104.52/tonne

Bitcoin: -3.5% to $US71,028

Prices current around 7:30am AEDT.

Live updates on the major ASX indices:

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Minimum wage rises well above inflation

G By Gareth Hutchens

Australia's minimum wage will increase by 5.97%, and minimum award workers will get a 4.75% pay boost, in the Fair Work Commission's (FWC) annual wage review.

The new national minimum wage will be $26.44 per hour (up from $24.95), and $1,004.90 per week (up from $948), based on a full-time 38-hour week.

The pay increase will begin from July 1.

The pay increase in affect millions of low-paid workers. While the national minimum wage covers a very small proportion of the workforce, roughly 20% of all employees in Australia are paid at a minimum award rate.

According to the FWC, because of the part-time and low-paid characteristics of the modern award-reliant workforce, the wages paid to them constitute only about 11.2% of the national 'wage bill'.

Minimum wage decision handed down

D By David Taylor

Fair Work has made a determination on the minimum wage.

The modern award wage rates shall be increased by 4.75%, effective from 1 July 2026.

This is above the rate of inflation.

How batteries muscled out gas and pushed power prices down

D By Daniel Ziffer

Great read from chief business correspondent Ian Verrender about the big surprise of the past few weeks - power prices are coming down.

Here's the kicker:

"More than one-third of Australian households generate power via rooftop solar, while a revolution in home battery installations has dramatically changed the dynamics and economics of electricity generation.

"It is a shift that could help solve a decades-long energy crisis that has sent inflation soaring in recent years and contributed to higher interest rates."

ICYMI: House price growth is flattening

D By Daniel Ziffer

If you didn't see this from my colleague Lin Lin yesterday it's worth a read.

Australia's housing market stalled in May, with national home values flat after months of slowing growth.

Tax changes? The Iran conflict? Interest rates? A little of column A, B and C?

The weakness was led by Sydney and Melbourne, where values fell 0.9 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively, according to Cotality data.

Check out the data, and what it means, here.

Show the working, dammit!

D By Daniel Ziffer

OK, OK, here's how Westpac calculates the fall.

I'm in Victoria, so I'll be spending the afternoon searching for previously unknown deposits of iron ore - trying to do my bit to balance the books.

State revenue to take a housing hit

D By Daniel Ziffer

Interesting look at the state-based impact of the federal budget's changes to housing taxes.

Some states (particularly the non-miners) will feel it hard - property and construction taxes make up a substantial percentage of their core funding, alongside GST distributions from the Commonwealth.

Westpac analysts Imre Speizer, Uma Choudhury and Damien McColough have numbers that will likely cause Victorian Treasurer Jaclyn Symes and NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey to grimace and commence their third thousand-yard-stare-out-the-window of the morning.

Here's what they (Westpac) say:

"Using the sensitivities to a 1% deviation from estimates available in the budget, we can use our forecasts to estimate the impact on each state’s revenue stream.

"Total housing market turnover is expected to decline 20% in aggregate across the Commonwealth. If applied equally to all states it implies hits to revenue of $2.3bn and $2.0bn for NSW & Victoria, although that could be conservative given that we could perhaps assume they would take the brunt of the fall.

"When combined with the impact of a shift in prices, the numbers for these two largest states are $2.7bn and $2.9bn respectively."

No, giving a family member $20,000 is not a tax deduction

D By Daniel Ziffer

It's tax time!

So get set for my colleague Nassim Khadem's annual article about the wild things people try and claim as deductions - costs that would lower their taxable income.

ATO assistant commissioner Anita Challen said each year the agency got unusual claims that they had to reject:

"We've seen a taxpayer look to claim $20,000 that they gifted to a family member as a tax deduction — definitely a no-go zone in terms of putting that in your tax return."

So that person doesn't get to deduct $20,000 from their taxable income. But presumably the person gifted the $20,000 gets to keep it.

I'll upload my bank details shortly in case anyone wants to test this theory by making a contribution.

Check out the article here:

Telstra expected to be 'smaller' in 2030 thanks to AI: CEO

N By National AI reporter Cameron Wilson

Telstra's chief says the telco expects to have a smaller workforce by the end of the decade because of artificial intelligence.

CEO Vicki Brady made the comments about the impact of the new technology on Telstra while speaking on a panel of business leaders at the Australian Financial Review's AI Summit on Tuesday.

"No one knows what 2030 looks like, but our best estimate [is that] we would expect our organisation to be smaller in 2030 than it is today," she said.

Brady said the idea of a reduced workforce might cause "fear and uncertainty" and that Telstra was focusing on training its staff to adapt to the change.

"Rather than, you know, dwell on that, we have focused on investment in skills and capability because, no matter what 2030 looks like, I'm more convinced that [AI literacy] becomes just a foundational skill," she said.

Earlier this year, Telstra axed 650 roles, including 200 from its joint AI venture with consulting and technology firm Accenture.

"These proposals are intended to help us reduce complexity, be more competitive and operate more efficiently and sustainably," Brady wrote in an email announcing the cuts to staff.

What happened overnight?

D By Daniel Ziffer

Stocks are steady at record highs as AI optimism trumps Iran tensions, Chibuike Oguh of Reuters reports.

Here are the key points:

Oil prices surge as Gulf hostilities threaten Strait of Hormuz reopening

AI demand drives global stocks to record highs despite Iran war

Wall Street stocks finish higher

Dollar rises as gold falls

Global stocks clung to record highs on Monday as strong corporate results, fueled in part by artificial intelligence optimism, outweighed investor concerns over escalating U.S.-Iran tensions that have pushed oil prices higher.

The United States said it struck Iranian military sites during the weekend and Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Monday it had targeted a US base in response. Iranian news agency Tasnim said Iran is halting indirect negotiations with the United States after Israel ordered troops to push deeper into Lebanon to battle Iranian-backed Hezbollah.

The fresh hostilities could complicate diplomatic efforts to end the three-month-old war.

On Wall Street, stocks eked out gains to finish near record highs after trading flat early in the session as energy and technology stocks took the front seat, while utilities and consumer discretionary led losers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.09%, the S & P 500 added 0.26%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.42%.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.76%.

"The Iran story continues to swirl around in the background, and I think it's pretty interesting and impressive that the market has been able to, not completely ignore it, but dismiss a lot of the noise," said Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group in Philadelphia.

"Earnings growth and Q1 earnings season, and even the revisions for Q2, are looking really strong. And so I think it's just sort of this interesting dynamic where usually the headlines are driving the market narrative, but this market is trying to price a path to peace, whatever that ultimately looks like," Agati said.

Nvidia unveiled a new chip on Monday that puts AI capabilities directly into laptops and desktop computers, raising the stakes in the battle for dominance among other semiconductor makers and technology companies.

AI giant Anthropic said on Monday it has confidentially filed for a US initial public offering.

The MSCI All-World index rose 0.10% after hitting a fresh record high on the day.

"We are in an unusual period for the market where the fundamentals and technicals converge to drive markets higher, with strong earnings revisions and relentless buying," said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide in Philadelphia. "Equity markets have been largely immune to Iran news over the past several weeks because investors are afraid of being caught on the wrong side if a significant development occurs."

Brent crude futures rose 4.24% to settle at $94.98 a barrel.

'I will not let this rest': senator Deborah O'Neill puts KPMG and consulting firms on notice

D By Daniel Ziffer

Scandals surrounding consulting firms misusing confidential information are rolling on ... pushed hard by Greens senator Barbara Pocock and Labor's Deborah O'Neill.

The latter has just been on AM, and you can listen to it via the link below.

Here are the top lines:

"What I'd call on is these large entities (the 'Big Four' consulting firms) KPMG, PWC, EY, Deloitte; clearly it's time for them to actually change their transparency in the public place. These failures, one after another, indicate that there's a problem with the structure.

"There's a problem with the practice. There's a problem with the culture. And while Australian superannuation is clearly my focus, I will not let this rest."

Asked about why this came to light via a whistleblower rather than regulation or enforcement:

"So (regulator) ASIC gave evidence to the committee on Friday that their capacity to investigate goes to registered company auditors.

"They can't actually oversee a partnership, which is what this model of KPMG, PWC, EY, Deloitte, they can't oversee that because that's covered by state legislation.

"So there's this hidden space, if you will, in which this business model is operating. And they have all the window dressing of being a corporate entity, but none of the responsibility."

Ouch.

Market set to open lower; NZ's has

D By Daniel Ziffer

Australian shares were likely to open lower on Tuesday, dragged down by commodity stocks reflecting weaker gold and iron ore prices, as hopes for an end to the Middle East conflict remained uncertain.

The local share price index futures fell 0.4%, a 19.4-point discount to the underlying S & P/ASX 200 index close. The benchmark ended flat on Monday.

New Zealand's benchmark S & P/NZX 50 index fell 0.2% in early trade.

- Reuters

Australian billionaires hold total wealth of $686b

D By Daniel Ziffer

My wonderful colleague Yiying Li has a searing compilation of today's billionaire news.

Australia has 178 billionaires, with total wealth exceeding $686 billion, according to Oxfam Australia analysis.

While Oxfam Australia wants more action on tax reform, Centre for Independent Studies executive director Michael Stutchbury argues that the proposed budget "threatens to make all Australians poorer while doing nothing to reduce inequality".

He says Australia needs more billionaires, given the rich pay a disproportionately high share of taxes, citing Australian Tax Office figures.

"The top 1 per cent of taxpayers forked out nearly one-fifth of personal tax revenue in 2021–22.

"By international standards, Australia already imposes a high top marginal personal income tax rate of 47 per cent, which kicks in at a relatively low multiple ($190,000) of average earnings."

Read it all here:

EU gets cybersecurity tool Mythos

D By Daniel Ziffer

AI company Anthropic is reportedly sharing access to its most advanced artificial intelligence model, Mythos, with the EU.

The region's leaders had been seeking access to the powerful tool for months. CNBC reported the European Commission confirmed it had held "several productive meetings" with the American AI firm.

Anthropic first rolled out Mythos to a limited number of companies in April as part of "Project Glasswing".

Because the model excelled at identifying security flaws and weaknesses in software, it raised concerns about cybersecurity threats from bad actors.

The idea behind the project was to give the tool to big providers like Microsoft and Amazon Web Services first, to bolster their defences.

In late April, I reported how local banks, power providers and infrastructure firms did not have access to test their systems against the powerful new AI cybersecurity risk.

Something that has stayed with me is the analysis of Dimitri Vedeneev, the executive director for secure AI at security firm CyberCX.

"This technology changes on a three-to-six-week basis at the moment," he said, flipping the issue around: Mythos might be powerful, but it is nothing compared to what is coming.

"The AI capabilities that are currently available today are the worst that they'll ever be."

It's a good round-up of the issues.

More billionaires, and they're getting richer

D By Daniel Ziffer

Anti-poverty lobby group Oxfam Australia suggests Australian billionaires' wealth grows by $50,000 per minute.

It estimates the collective wealth of Australia's billionaires increased by $25.67 billion over the past year, and that alone could lift nearly 1 million people out of poverty in Australia.

The new analysis, based on data from the 2026 Australian Financial Review Rich List, suggests local billionaires (OzBillys?) saw their third consecutive year of wealth gains.

Oxfam Australia has been calling for a tax on the super-rich and broader tax changes to tackle inequality.

Here's some of what they found:

The total wealth of Australian billionaires in 2026 is more than $686 billion.

Australia now has 178 billionaires, up 17 from last year — the most billionaires on record.

The 20 richest Australians hold more wealth than the bottom 3 million households.

That's the data.

Heres what they say the impact is, with the increase in billionaire wealth in the past year having the ability to:

Lift nearly 1 million Australians out of poverty.

Cover household electricity bills for every single Australian household for well over 1 year.

Fund Australia's entire aid budget almost five times over.

Cover the grocery bills for almost 3 million households for a year.

Oxfam Australi