Bernstein Maintains $150,000 Bitcoin Price Forecast Despite Recent Drop

In brief

Bernstein analysts kept a $150,000 Bitcoin price forecast in play despite its nearly 50% retrace from all-time highs.

Analysts pointed to potential regulatory clarity and Strategy remaining a net BTC buyer as possible tailwinds.

Bitcoin has jumped more than 6% this week, hitting its highest point in the last two weeks.

Since reaching a new all-time high price last October, Bitcoin has failed to meet lofty future price targets from enthusiasts and analysts alike, falling nearly 50% since that time.

But as it changes hands at $63,836 on Monday after touching $63,900 earlier in the day—its highest price in the last two weeks of trading—analysts at investment bank Bernstein are still holding to their admittedly “ambitious” target of $150,000 per Bitcoin by year’s end.

“Bottom line, any crypto correction is painful, but this one has been rather comforting,” analysts from the financial firm wrote. “Crypto feels like it's growing up. We remain optimistic on Bitcoin long-term,” they added.

The top crypto asset has jumped 1.7% in the last 24 hours and now more than 6% in the last week of trading, though Bitcoin has seen all its gains since the reelection of President Donald Trump wiped away in the last eight months.

“We reckon, our 2026 year-end $150K BTC price target appears ambitious in context of the market correction,” analysts said. “However, we expect [the] Bitcoin cycle will eventually turn and we continue to watch the BTC flows to see any signs of life.”

One sign of life could be on the regulatory front, with the firm noting that odds of the Clarity Act’s passage by the end of the year still sit around 50%, according to Polymarket.

If that regulatory advancement comes, then the firm expects “more market liquidity and institutional adoption for both crypto-native assets and blockchain versions of real-world assets.”

Furthermore, analysts are not anticipating that Michael Saylor and his Bitcoin behemoth Strategy will be forced to become net sellers as the firm grapples with funding dividend obligations. The largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin sold $216 million worth of BTC last week to fund dividends, extending its USD reserve to more than $2.55 billion.

“Strategy continues to maintain USD reserve coverage of ~17 months for dividend and interest expenses, with any reduction below 12 months requiring board authorization,” said Bernstein. “Thus, it looks unlikely any major Bitcoin forced supply could come from Strategy and it continues to be a net buyer in the market,” it added.

To reach its ambitious $150,000 end of year target, Bitcoin would need to jump nearly 135% from its current mark.