Central Asia: A New Great Game in a Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

When people speak of the Great Game, they usually mean the 19th-century rivalry between the British and Russian empires for influence over Central Asia. It conjures up images of spies crossing deserts, mountain fortresses and imperial intrigue – an era vividly brought to life in Peter Hopkirk’s books, which first awakened my fascination with the region.

Yet this new great game is being played by different rules. Central Asian republics are no longer prizes to be won. They have become increasingly confident players in their own right.

The war did not create these trends, he said, but accelerated them.

That changing balance was on display at last year’s China-Central Asia summit in Astana. Bringing together President Xi Jinping and the leaders of all five Central Asian republics, it reflected both China’s growing confidence and the region’s rising strategic importance. The meeting also showed Beijing’s determination to directly engage Central Asia beyond Russian-led institutions. While much Western commentary portrayed this engagement as another step in China’s expanding influence, the reality is more nuanced.