Economists Expect 85,000 Jobs Gain in July, Prediction Market Traders See Lower Figures

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the employment picture for July on Friday, and economists are expecting a gain of 85,000 jobs in the month, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates.

However, traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think those figures may come in lower.

Speculators place just a 47% chance that employers added more than 80,000 jobs in July, but they also give a 60% chance that they added more than 70,000 jobs in the month.

The contracts on the platform ask traders what the jobs number will be for July, asking if the official figure will be above a series of numbers. Contracts are resolved using the official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

A beat compared with consensus estimates isn't out of the question, even if not likely: traders place a 41% chance employers added 90,000 jobs in July, and just over a one-in-three chance that the number will come in at six figures.

However, traders also think there's a one-in-three chance the number will come in below 60,000.

Last month, Kalshi traders placed a 63% chance that employers added more than 125,000 jobs in June, above consensus estimates for 115,000. However, the official figure came in much lower, at just 57,000 jobs added.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.