Fed Officials See Inflation Improvement, But No Rate Changes Soon

Two Federal Reserve officials on Thursday indicated some optimism on inflation, though neither indicated a likelihood that interest rates will change anytime soon.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Thursday that inflation is still trending the wrong way though there have been a few bright spots. A little later in the afternoon, New York Fed President John Williams said he expects inflation readings to start trending lower.

In a live CNBC interview from his home district, Goolsbee declined to speculate on where he thinks interest rates are headed. However, he said he remains squarely focused on inflation, in remarks that reflected sentiment new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh expressed a week ago.

"You have seen now little bit of improvement on this services inflation, and I've been identifying that as something that we would want to see," Goolsbee said from the trading floor of the Cboe. "But right now, as between the two sides of the Fed's mandate, the inflation side and the job market side, clearly the problem's on the inflation side."

The comments came hours after the Commerce Department reported that core inflation as gauged by the Fed's preferred benchmark, the personal consumption expenditures price index, stood at 3.4% in May, its highest since October 2023.

Price increases were fairly evenly distributed, with goods rising 0.4% and services up 0.5%, the most since January. On the goods side, much of the gain was driven by energy, which jumped 6.5%, while services was pushed higher by transportation services, a sector sensitive to gas prices and which accelerated 0.8%.

Markets expect the Fed could raise its benchmark rate in September, but Goolsbee wouldn't commit to where he would stand. He said he "applauded" Warsh's move to discourage such "forward guidance" from the Fed's communication. The Federal Open Market Committee's post-meeting statement was dramatically shorter than the norm, and the forward guidance language was removed.

"Let's streamline, let's take some forward guidance out of there. Let's not speculate about the rate path," he said. "I think it's healthy that we have those resets."

Goolsbee dispelled the notion of rancor within the Fed now that Warsh has taken over. He noted that the two were "foxhole bodies" during the global financial crisis, when Warsh was helping devise rescue programs and Goolsbee was a senior economic advisor in the Barack Obama White House.

"He comes in with new ideas. He's a serious guy. You saw in the press conference that that he comes with a different style," Goolsbee said. "Before I was ever at the Fed, and since I've been at the Fed, I've been uneasy with the use of forward guidance and speculating about the future of rates on a routine basis."

Williams, the New York Fed leader, said that he expects inflation readings to start trending lower though he is happy with interest rates at their current level.

The influential policymaker's first remarks since last week's meeting indicate less concern about inflation though still not enough to talk about cuts.

"Given the elevated level of inflation, it is imperative that we restore it to our 2 percent longer-run goal on a sustained basis," Williams said in remarks at the Crane Money Fund Symposium in Jersey City, New Jersey. "The current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to do that."

Williams cited three reasons he thinks inflation will ease: the waning impact from tariffs; hopes that the Iran war is nearing an end so energy prices will ease; and the expectation that shelter inflation will slow as rent increases moderate.

Inflation, he said, will drop to 3.5% this year from its current 4.1%, and "continue on a glide path" back down to the Fed's 2% target by 2028.

"Like the World Cup tournament, the economy can take surprising and unpredictable turns," he said. "One thing that is certain is my unwavering commitment to supporting maximum employment and bringing inflation down to our 2 percent longer-run goal on a sustained basis."

The FOMC next meets July 28-29, with markets expecting about a 30% chance of a hike, according to the CME Group's FedWatch. Goolsbee is a nonvoting participant at FOMC meetings this year but will get a vote in 2027. Williams is a permanent voter.