Hong Kong Raises 2026 Economic Growth Forecast to 3.5-4.5%

Hong Kong has raised its full-year economic growth forecast for 2026 to a range of 3.5 to 4.5 per cent following a 4.3 per cent expansion in the second quarter, supported by buoyant external trade and resilient domestic demand.

Releasing its half-yearly economic report on Friday, the government revised its 2026 growth forecast from the previous range of 2.5 to 3.5 per cent, citing a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year and taking into account the near-term outlook.

It said the economy should experience “solid growth” in the second half, with global demand for artificial intelligence-related electronic products expected to support merchandise trade, while rising visitor arrivals would benefit exports of services.

The second-quarter figure, unchanged from the advance estimate released last month, was slower than the 5.9 per cent growth recorded in the first three months.

The economy expanded by 5.1 per cent in the first half, its strongest half-yearly performance in nearly five years.

Exports of goods surged by 28.9 per cent year on year in real terms, while private consumption expenditure rose by 2.8 per cent and overall investment increased by 4.4 per cent.