How to Counter One Nation's Rise: A Strategy for Major Parties

To confuse One Nation with its supporters would be a fatal political mistake for both the federal government and the opposition.

Many of the supporters of One Nation are hardworking, decent Australians who are disillusioned with the major political parties and are worried about the uncertainties facing their families’ financial future, the high cost of living and the impact of AI on their jobs. At the core of their concerns is a deep-seated worry that Australia is heading in the wrong direction and they are not being listened to or included in the nation’s journey.

The One Nation political party, on the other hand, is running a very successful scare campaign blaming our current immigration policies for forcing up house prices, the cost of electricity and any other ill that comes their way.

One Nation until now has been a party of complaint – and therein lies its weakness.

The party’s recent high electoral support in the polls is largely due to the poor performance of the major political parties in addressing the issues affecting the electorate. It was the same in 1998 in Queensland when One Nation stormed on to the political stage by winning seats from both the ALP and the Coalition with 23% of the primary vote.

In office, Queensland Labor subsequently turned back the One Nation tide by addressing the concerns of its voters.

This meant meeting with as many of them as possible face-to-face at community cabinet meetings across Queensland and listening to them.

Our subsequent policy focus and initiatives dealt with their concerns. It worked in Queensland, the original home of One Nation and that strategy can work federally.

The answer in dealing with the One National party is therefore clear. The federal government must develop solutions that tackle the daily challenges facing One Nation voters and implement policies that make a difference to their lives. It also means treating One Nation voters with respect and implementing policies which:

Set out a clear and explainable immigration policy based on skills and a set annual number

Explain the economic and social benefits of Australian multiculturalism in that immigration policy

Set out a vision of what a future Australia will look like in 2050

Sets out a visionary policy which skills the nation for future jobs as part of a policy dealing with the impact of AI on the workforce

Explains how the federal government will encourage and sustain our keys industries through job creating innovation

Outlines capital investment in the regions that will provide long overdue infrastructure and job security. That means providing a firm future direction for regional Australia

Ongoing cost-of-living measures which enable families to financially survive. One-off handouts don’t cut it among ONP supporters.

It is a long time to the next election and One Nation faces many challenges that will see the erosion of some of its strong support in the current polls.

For example, One Nation has a history of self-destructing and selecting ill-disciplined, poor-quality candidates. Except for Barnaby Joyce, One Nation has no executive government experience. Pauline Hanson is tenacious and determined but she is no prime minister, despite her claims to the contrary. Many of her supporters want to see her “get stuck into” Labor and the Liberals but deep down they know she is not up be being prime minister. If Joyce was to become the One Nation leader that may be a game-changer for One Nation.

Australia’s preferential voting system disadvantages One Nation. While the Liberals have moved away from preferencing One Nation last, a significant number of Liberal voters will still not preference One Nation particularly in urban areas. This will cost One Nation seats.

Because of the novelty of Hanson’s emerging party in the 1998 state election, it largely escaped major media scrutiny of its policies. This contributed to its success. That will not happen at the next federal election.

The more popular One Nation becomes, the more the national media will chase One Nation on all its policies. No major party can win the next federal election on just an immigration policy.

Labor and the opposition can reduce One Nation’s electoral support by sound futuristic policies and engaging face-to-face with One Nation supporters in the regions and outer suburbs of our major cities.

The question is whether they have the strategy and policy commitment to do it.