IPL 2026 Playoffs: Race for the Final Spot Heats Up

PBKS captain Shreyas Iyer (L), RR captain Riyan Parag (C) and KKR captain Ajinkya Rahane (R)

Three playoff spots are already locked in for Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Gujarat Titans and Sunrisers Hyderabad. But the race for the final place is still alive with six league games left. While Mumbai Indians and Lucknow Super Giants are already out, five teams remain mathematically alive - Rajasthan Royals, Punjab Kings, Chennai Super Kings, Delhi Capitals and Kolkata Knight Riders. Here is what each of them needs from here.

Rajasthan Royals: One win should do it

RR have put themselves in pole position after climbing to 14 points from 13 matches. They are currently fourth with a slightly positive net run rate and, among the teams still chasing the last playoff berth, they hold the clearest advantage.Remaining fixture:

vs MI (Away)

The equation is straightforward for RR. A win against MI will take them to 16 points, and they will seal the final IPL 2026 playoff spot outright. The timing also helps RR. By the time they play MI on the afternoon of May 24, they will already know the outcomes of KKR vs MI, GT vs CSK, SRH vs RCB and LSG vs PBKS. That means RR could walk into Wankhede knowing exactly what target they need.The ideal RR scenario is:

KKR lose to MI

CSK lose to GT

PBKS lose to LSG

If all three happen, RR qualify even before taking the field against MI. The one thing RR would want to avoid is a crowded 14-point tie involving DC and CSK. Their NRR is only marginally positive at the moment, so a heavy defeat to MI could still drag them into trouble if multiple teams finish level. But among all teams still alive, RR remain best placed because they control their own destiny.

Punjab Kings: Must beat LSG and hope others stumble

PBKS have slipped badly at the wrong time with five straight defeats, but they are still alive.Remaining fixture:

vs LSG (Away)

A win over LSG takes PBKS to 15 points. That number can still be enough for fourth place, but only if results elsewhere fall in their favour. The biggest match for PBKS before they play is KKR vs MI. If KKR lose that game, one direct challenger drops out of the way. PBKS would also want GT to beat CSK because a CSK win would move them to 14, ahead of PBKS before their final game, adding more pressure on Shreyas Iyer’s outfit.The ideal PBKS scenario is:

KKR lose to MI

CSK lose to GT

RR lose to MI

DC lose to KKR

However, if RR win over MI on Saturday, PBKS vs LSG result will become redundant as RR will supersede PBKS with 16 points and lock in the final IPL 2026 playoff spot.

Chennai Super Kings: Need two wins and plenty of help

CSK are still alive mathematically, but they probably left themselves too much to do earlier in the season.Remaining fixture:

vs GT (Away)

A win over GT takes CSK to 14 points. But even then, qualification is unlikely unless several other results go their way. The first thing CSK need is a KKR defeat against MI. If KKR win both their games, they can get to 15 and move ahead. CSK would also want PBKS to lose to LSG because PBKS can otherwise get to 15 as well. Most importantly, CSK would need RR to lose to MI. If RR win and move to 16, the last playoff spots is effectively gone.The ideal CSK scenario is:

Beat GT convincingly to improve NRR

KKR lose at least one game

PBKS lose to LSG

RR lose to MI

DC lose to KKR

Even then, CSK could still end up tied on 14 points with RR, meaning NRR becomes decisive. The challenge for CSK is that their NRR is currently slightly negative. So if qualification comes down to a multi-team tie at 14, they may need a big-margin win over GT. Their chances are slim, but not impossible.

Delhi Capitals: one win needed, and even that may not be enough

DC have one match remaining, which gives them a route to 14 points. But their poor net run rate means they have little room for error.Remaining fixtures:

vs KKR (Away)

The biggest issue for DC is their NRR of -0.871, by far the worst among the contenders. That means a tie on points is dangerous.The ideal DC scenario is:

KKR lose to MI

RR lose to MI

PBKS lose to LSG

DC beat KKR by a big margin

In this scenario, the final league game between KKR and DC effectively turns into a knockout. The loser is out, while the winner moves ahead.

Kolkata Knight Riders: Must win both, and still depend on others

KKR probably have the toughest route among the realistic contenders.Remaining fixtures:

vs MI (Home)

vs DC (Home)

KKR are on 11 points from 12 matches. Winning both games takes them to 15, which keeps them alive.The ideal KKR scenario is:

Beat MI

Beat DC

GT beat CSK

LSG beat PBKS

RR lose to MI

If all those results happen, KKR can sneak through with 15 points. The problem for KKR is that even after winning both games, they may still be vulnerable if RR get to 16 or PBKS get to 15 with a better NRR. Their NRR is also only slightly negative, so they cannot afford narrow wins. A dominant win over MI could significantly improve their position before the final-day clash with DC. The positive for KKR is scheduling. They play once before RR play MI, which means they can keep applying pressure and force RR into a must-win situation.

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