Iran claims shooting down US drone; experts debate if retired MQ-1s are back
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on May 31 that it had shot down a US MQ-1 Predator drone, accusing it of violating airspace. The US Central Command (CENTCOM), responsible for US military operations in the Middle East, later confirmed the loss of an MQ-1, but asserted that the aircraft was operating over international waters at the time.
"This raises the question of whether the US is reusing the legendary MQ-1 Predator drones after retiring them 8 years ago," said Joseph Trevithick and Howard Altman, editors for the US military publication War Zone, on June 1.
The two US editors suggested that the downed drone could be an MQ-1C Gray Eagle. Although it still carries the MQ-1 designation, the C variant was developed specifically to meet the unique requirements of the US Army, including lower logistical costs and pilot training demands compared to the MQ-1A/B variants used by the Air Force.
The US Army has previously deployed units equipped with MQ-1C aircraft to the Middle East. In April, the US Air Force also posted photos of the MQ-1C Gray Eagle, but captioned it as an MQ-1 Predator.
"However, there is still a possibility that the US Air Force has reactivated its Predator fleet. They might be owned and operated by private companies, or withdrawn from military storage," the two US experts stated.
According to Trevithick, reactivating MQ-1 drone operations is an attractive option for the US military, especially as they need to fill a force gap after at least 50 MQ-9 Reapers have been shot down by Iran and the Houthi forces in Yemen.
Bloomberg and Air & Space Forces Magazine reported late last month, citing sources familiar with the matter, that Iran had destroyed 30 MQ-9 aircraft in six weeks of fighting, equivalent to 20% of the total Reaper drones owned by the US military before the conflict erupted, causing nearly a billion dollars in losses.
Al-Masirah television channel, operated by the Houthi, announced on May 29 that the Yemeni armed group had shot down its 25th Reaper since the regional conflict began in October 2023.
"The losses of the MQ-9 fleet and the need for reconnaissance drones lead to the possibility of the MQ-1 series returning to operation. They can perform similar missions to the MQ-9 to some extent," Altman said.
The US Congressional Research Service states that MQ-9 aircraft cost about $30 million per unit, while each MQ-1 costs $4-5 million depending on the configuration.
The MQ-1 Predator is smaller, has a shorter range, and lower overall performance than the MQ-9 Reaper. However, these limitations could be compensated for by the operational terrain in the Middle East, where US bases are located relatively close to Iran and potential operational areas like the Strait of Hormuz.
Washington previously used MQ-1s to monitor Tehran's activities in the Persian Gulf, including an incident in 2012 where a Predator was shot down by an Iranian Su-25 fighter jet.
"The US Air Force may be more willing to sacrifice MQ-1s than MQ-9s. Deploying this drone model for missions in high-risk areas is a suitable option," Trevithick and Altman stated.
In the late 2010s, the US Air Force discussed transferring its retired MQ-1s with the Navy and Marine Corps. However, there is no indication that these branches accepted the MQ-1 fleet. Instead, the US Navy helped the Marine Corps lay the groundwork for the MQ-9 Reaper fleet.
"If it's true that only 15 MQ-1Bs remained in storage as of 2024, another question is what happened to the dozens of MQ-1s that the US Air Force operated until their retirement. It's possible they were used as targets for live-fire training, research, development, testing, or converted into suicide drones," Trevithick and Altman said.
The Pentagon currently has a high demand for the MQ-9 series in the Middle East, but the losses over the years have been alarmingly high. It is unclear how many MQ-9s are available for the US military to purchase or when a more modern aircraft will be available to replace the Reaper fleet.
"The US military does not seem to have brought any MQ-1B back into operation. Reusing them on a small scale remains a temporary solution, meeting operational needs and reducing pressure on the heavily impacted MQ-9 fleet," Trevithick and Altman stated.
