Macron's Departure Could Create 'Big Problem' for NATO's Ukraine Coalition

French President Emmanuel Macron’s departure from the Elysee Palace next year could open the door to Ukraine skeptics and create a “big problem” for the NATO coalition backing Kiev, The Telegraph reported on Sunday, citing sources.

Fears about what the British paper described as a “leadership vacuum” revolve mainly around the so-called “coalition of the willing” – a grouping of roughly 30, mostly NATO, states that has spent over a year drawing up plans to put troops in Ukraine as self-styled “peacekeepers” once a ceasefire is reached. Among the goals of the group – which is dominated by the UK and France – is also to coordinate aid to Kiev.

Russia has rejected any unauthorized foreign military presence in Ukraine, suggesting that Western troops would not be “peacekeepers” but rather “occupation forces” and therefore legitimate targets.

The Telegraph noted that while new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham signaled continuity in backing Kiev and NATO, there is no equivalent figure in Paris, with Macron constitutionally required to leave his post after next year’s presidential election. This, the paper added, has sparked concerns about a “slow death” for the coalition.

Two potential replacements are Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing National Rally, and left-wing firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon. Both are hardline Ukraine and NATO skeptics. Le Pen has vowed to pull France out of the bloc’s military command, lift sanctions on Russia, and push Kiev toward a peace deal, while Melenchon has pledged an outright French withdrawal from NATO.

A Western official told The Telegraph that NATO would face “a big problem” if either of the candidates wins the election. Another Telegraph source claimed that British officials are already examining what either outcome could mean for Anglo-French relations, including the sharing of classified intelligence.

The vacuum fear is reportedly exacerbated by the situation elsewhere in Europe. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is mired in domestic turmoil, with Berlin refusing to send troops to Ukraine even to police a future truce. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also questioned the bloc’s cohesion and is facing a re-election battle next year.

Even without leadership woes, the coalition has been reeling under policy splits. Italy and Poland have ruled out sending their own troops to Ukraine, while Spain, Belgium, Sweden, and Canada have signaled they will contribute to security guarantees only through training, funding, or logistics rather than combat deployments.

Among the other problems is the lack of military personnel, with multiple media reports warning that NATO members would struggle to amass a “peacekeeper” force even under an ideal geopolitical landscape.