Marine Le Pen Favored to Win French Presidency After Appeal Court Ruling

Veteran French politician Marine Le Pen is the early favorite to win France’s presidential election next year after an appeals court ruled her eligible to run, opinion polls suggest.

Le Pen, the longtime figurehead of the right-wing National Rally (RN), reached the presidential runoff in 2017 and 2022 and was widely seen as a leading contender to succeed President Emmanuel Macron. Her 2027 bid was thrown into doubt last year after she was convicted of using EU funds intended for parliamentary aides to pay party staff in France. She was sentenced to four years in prison, fined, and barred from holding public office for five years.

On Tuesday, an appeals court upheld the conviction but reduced the ban, clearing the way for her to run in 2027. Le Pen denies any wrongdoing.

"I am innocent," she told TF1 after the ruling, confirming that she would seek the presidency and naming her top lieutenant, Jordan Bardella, as her preferred prime minister.

Two polls released on Wednesday – by Ifop for LCI and Le Figaro, and Toluna Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL – showed Le Pen leading the first round and winning potential runoffs.

Ifop put her first-round support at 36%, with no rival above 19%. Harris Interactive gave her 35%.

In a runoff against former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, Harris Interactive placed Le Pen at 49%, while Ifop projected her winning with 54%. Against Gabriel Attal, another former prime minister and likely candidate for Macron’s centrist Renaissance party, both polls put her at 55%. They also showed her defeating left-wing France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Melenchon by a wide margin.

The surveys suggest Le Pen has largely caught up with Bardella, whom she previously named as RN’s fallback presidential candidate after her conviction. Bardella has endorsed her decision to run, effectively ending speculation about his own potential bid.

The polling comes as France remains mired in a prolonged political crisis, with a fragmented parliament, repeated government collapses, and rising public distrust. Macron has failed to secure a stable majority for years, leaving the country divided among three rival blocs while struggling with widening budget deficits and public debt above 117% of GDP.

Budget disputes have triggered repeated no-confidence motions and the resignation of several prime ministers, while the deadlock has prompted major rating agencies to downgrade France’s credit rating.