Polls: INDIA bloc's foundational pillars jolted

The INDIA bloc on Monday reeled under the electoral jolts its major foundational pillars - Congress, TMC, DMK and Left - received in four of the five electoral bouts in this round of assembly elections, with Congress-led UDF's victory in Kerala against LDF being the only saving grace. This has already made many Opposition campers worry about the unity and future of the INDIA bloc as they apprehend the internal tension and contradictions within the bloc have reached a boiling point with these setbacks. The Opposition defeats also raise doubts about their ability to credibly retain their planks against SIR and the women's reservation bill.

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The desperate Opposition hopes that they will be able to halt the galloping BJP in this round of assembly polls - following the saffron party's victories in Bihar, Delhi, Maharashtra and Haryana after its underperformance in the last Lok Sabha polls - has turned into a nightmare after BJP stormed the strategically key state of West Bengal while retaining Assam and (with ally) Puducherry.

The expanding saffron landscape, and the increasing Opposition failures to breach it, have added psychological burden to the latter's political weakness. This adds to the Opposition tasks in next year's battles in many key States.

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While smaller parties like Congress and IUML have offered to support Tamil Nadu's new star Vijay's TVK if it is short of a few numbers, whether he will accept this fragile plan or work for a stable arrangement with AIADMK - and New Delhi - is being closely watched.

Rahul Gandhi's conduct during this round of campaign vis-a-vis INDIA bloc members was seen in Opposition circles as an extension of what he did - creating a frosty relation with ally RJD in the recent Bihar polls with wrangling over seat-sharing and joint campaigns. On the eve of elections in Tamil Nadu, one section of Team Rahul pitched for an alliance with Vijay while the other sought more seats and power-sharing with DMK only to see both the plans not materialising. This chill in Congress-DMK ties meant no MK Stalin-Gandhi joint campaign despite their much-demonstrated 'brotherly affection' for each other.

While Gandhi was bound to campaign against TMC in West Bengal and Left in Kerala given Congress did not have an alliance with both, yet the language he used in personally targeting - more than BJP - Mamata Banerjee and Pinarayi Vijayan, accusing them of being corrupt, B-teams of BJP and asking why ED had not acted against them - despite Gandhi having the record of leading Congress to maximum defeats against BJP and he and his family always terming ED actions against them in alleged corruption cases as Centre's vendetta - has baffled Opposition camps. Many think this has sowed seeds of bitterness within the INDIA bloc. This 'streak' of Gandhi, many think, leaves SP leader Akhilesh Yadav, next in line for the UP polls, to think whether he should take 'the risk' or join the non-Congress churn within the Opposition camp. While celebrating UDF's Kerala victory, Gandhi tactically tried to humour defeated Banerjee's claim of "election stealing" in West Bengal.

BJP winning West Bengal and Vijay's TVK Tamil Nadu shows the latest in a series of states such as UP, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha and Assam which Congress originally lost to regional parties, only to be later won by BJP or new regional outfits.

One comic relief that even the Congress circles are relishing is the defeat of Gandhi's friend and hand-picked captain for the Assam battle, Gaurav Gogoi, as his poll-eve elevation, much against the wish of most senior state leaders, helped BJP CM Himanta Biswa Sarma 'net' the remaining worthy Assam Congress leaders and avenge the Rahul-Gaurav team that had made Sarma quit Congress a decade ago.