Polymarket Eyes Japan Entry Amid Global Regulatory Scrutiny

Polymarket, a global prediction market platform, is reportedly seeking entry into Japan amid growing regulatory scrutiny of the sector worldwide.

The company has appointed Mike Eidlin, head of Japan at crypto firm Jupiter, to lead its local efforts and is preparing to lobby for authorization of prediction markets in the country, Bloomberg reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Polymarket is targeting government approval in Japan by 2030, viewing the market as a major untapped opportunity.

The plans come as prediction markets, including Polymarket and rival Kalshi, face increased regulatory pressure globally, with countries such as India among the latest to move against the platforms.

Japan’s strict gambling rules pose hurdle

Japan has strict laws around online gambling, permitting betting only on select government-authorized activities such as horse racing and public lotteries.

Authorities have stepped up scrutiny of online betting in recent years, with violations linked to online casino use carrying fines of up to $3,400 and potential prison sentences of up to three years for repeat offenses.

Polymarket reportedly said the company has seen “meaningful organic interest from users” in the country and across Asia, adding: “We’re always evaluating opportunities to expand access globally in compliant and locally appropriate ways.”

Cointelegraph approached Polymarket for comment but had not received a response by publication.

Related: CFTC sues Minnesota, Governor Tim Walz over prediction markets ban

Polymarket’s Japan community on X already exceeds 53,000 followers

Despite only seeking regulatory approval to operate in the country, Polymarket already has a Japan-focused X account with more than 53,000 followers,

Cointelegraph was not able to identify any other Polymarket regional community of comparable size on X at the time of writing.

Source: Polymarket Japan

Polymarket lists Japan among 35 restricted jurisdictions, including the United States, according to its country access policy. However, past reporting indicates users in restricted regions may still access the platform using tools such as VPNs.

Trading volumes fall amid regulatory pressure and competition

Polymarket’s trading activity has come under pressure amid rising regulatory scrutiny across multiple jurisdictions and growing competition from platforms such as Kalshi.

According to Token Terminal data, Polymarket’s monthly notional trading volume fell nearly 15% in April, while Kalshi saw an increase of about 13%.

Polymarket’s monthly notional trading volume. Source: Token Terminal

Polymarket’s access is also increasingly restricted globally, with the platform blocked in roughly 34 countries and subject to “close-only” restrictions in four others, according to Start Polymarket data.

Related: Polymarket team says user funds safe as exploit losses climb above $600K

India is among the latest jurisdictions moving to restrict access to prediction markets, with authorities reportedly preparing blocking orders against rival platform Kalshi following earlier action against Polymarket.