Tony Blair's thinktank calls for pensions triple lock to be scrapped

The pensions triple lock should be scrapped, Sir Tony Blair's thinktank has said. The guarantee ensures the state pension increases every April in line with whichever is highest out of three options: the total earnings growth in the year from May to July of the previous year; Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation in September of the previous year; or 2.5%.

But in a new report, the Tony Blair Institute (TBI) calls for the triple lock to be scrapped to prevent the state pension rising faster than earnings growth. It labels the current system "outdated, increasingly unaffordable, and too rigid for the way people live and work" because it concentrates state-supported income support at retirement.

What's the alternative? The former PM's thinktank argues a "lifespan fund" should be established instead, providing a flexible model that builds entitlement through activities including work, caring and study. It says annual contributions to a notional fund would provide up to 20 years of state-backed support at the level of today's state pension. Individuals could then be offered some flexibility, including accessing some of that entitlement while still working, to support them through "critical periods" such as unemployment, retraining or caring. People who choose to access this support would automatically pay higher national insurance contributions when they return to work, creating a "default path to rebuild what they had drawn down".

Tom Smith, director of economic policy at the TBI, said: "We can't keep pouring money into a system that is increasingly unaffordable." The report highlights that the number of pensioners will rise from 12.6 million today to nearly 19 million by 2070. He called on political party leaders to show "leadership" to tackle the issue.

Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch have both said they would keep it, as has Nigel Farage, who said he'd cut welfare to do so.

Caroline Abrahams, charity director at Age UK, said the triple lock should be retained into the next parliament – saying it has helped some of the poorest pensioners. "Going forward, we need a national debate to determine the purpose and appropriate value of the state pension as, at present, it is set too low to provide those reliant on it with a decent standard of living throughout their later lives," she said.

A Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) spokesperson said: "Supporting pensioners is a priority, and our commitment to the triple lock for the rest of this parliament means millions of pensioners will see their yearly state pension rise by up to £2,100." It added that the pensions commission "is already examining how we can ensure secure retirements for tomorrow's pensioners and for those that have not reached state pension age but need extra support".