UAE's OPEC Exit Reduces Group's Global Oil Share, Amid Regional Production Disruptions

The UAE's departure from OPEC has reduced the group's share of global crude oil production from 35% to 31%, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In 2025, OPEC produced an estimated 28.0 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil, with the UAE contributing significantly. Without the UAE, OPEC's production share would have been 31%.

The OPEC+ alliance, which includes Russia, accounted for about 46% of global crude oil production in 2025, dropping to around 42% without the UAE. Saudi Arabia remains the largest OPEC producer, with 9.3 million b/d output and an 11.6 million b/d production capacity in 2025.

The UAE announced its OPEC exit on April 28, 2026, effective May 1, after joining in 1967 as Abu Dhabi. It produced an average of 3.4 million b/d in 2025, with an effective production capacity of 4.2 million b/d.

The conflict in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz's effective closure have disrupted regional oil production. The EIA estimates production disruptions could rise to 11.25 million b/d by May 2026, impacting Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE. However, the UAE and Saudi Arabia can reroute exports around the Strait.

Iraq may face a 3.19 million b/d production shutdown in May, Saudi Arabia 3.29 million b/d, Kuwait 1.98 million b/d, and the UAE 1.35 million b/d.

The UAE's exit and these disruptions alter OPEC's dynamics, with Saudi Arabia's influence potentially increasing.