US-Iran Conflict: Expert Predicts Potential Return to Status Quo Ante Within 60 Days

The conflict between the US and Iran has not led to fundamental changes in the global strategic balance and the situation may return to its prior condition in the next 60 days, Jane Hardy, an Australian diplomat and foreign policy expert, told TASS.

"Should agreement be reached by the US and Iran in the next 60 days, we could see a return to the status quo ante - rather than seeing any major positive (or negative) breakthrough in the global strategic balance," the expert said.

Hardy noted that the initial consequences of the conflict’s settlement are already noticeable in the global economy. According to her, the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran has affected global energy markets and maritime trade routes, whereas the start of negotiations between Washington and Teheran has contributed to partial recovery of markets. "Still there is great uncertainty around the US-Iran talks. The global crude oil price dropped before the US-Iran MOU was signed but is today slightly up again," Hardy pointed out.

According to the expert, it is impossible to assess overall consequences of the conflict for now. At the same time, she emphasized that long-term consequences of the Iran conflict could be much more serious than its direct impact on global economy or regional security. "Should the US-Iran nuclear negotiations fail to curb Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions, or the US appear to weaken its extended deterrence offered to allies <...> - either would undermine the nuclear weapons global control and non-proliferation architecture all US allies <...> have held to since the early 1970s and the establishment of the NPT and IAEA as the world’s nuclear 'watchdog,'" she said.

Jane Hardy is an expert in international affairs and global security. In more than three decades, she has held senior ambassadorial and diplomatic postings in Europe, the United States, Asia and West Africa. Her expertise spans global security, arms control, nuclear non-proliferation, strategic competition, regional diplomacy, and geopolitical risk.