US Missile Stockpiles Depleted by 45-50% in Iran War, Creating Years-Long Vulnerability

The United States has sharply reduced its stockpile of several key missiles during the war with Iran, raising concerns about its ability to sustain another major conflict in the coming years, according to defence analysts and people familiar with recent Pentagon assessments. A new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies said the US military has used at least 45% of its inventory of Precision Strike Missiles, about half of its THAAD interceptors, and nearly 50% of Patriot air defence missiles during seven weeks of fighting. Sources familiar with internal Pentagon data told CNN the figures broadly match classified US stockpile assessments. The report said the US likely still has enough weapons to continue combat operations against Iran if the current ceasefire collapses. However, it warned that remaining inventories may be insufficient for a separate conflict against a near-peer adversary such as China, and replenishing stocks could take years. "The high munitions expenditures have created a window of increased vulnerability in the western Pacific," Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and one of the report's authors, told CNN. "It will take one to four years to replenish these inventories and several years after that to expand them to where they need to be." The study also estimated the US has expended around 30% of its Tomahawk missile stockpile, more than 20% of long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles, and about 20% of its SM-3 and SM-6 missiles. Replacing many of those systems could take four to five years. Earlier this year, the US Department of Defense signed contracts aimed at expanding missile production, but analysts said delivery timelines remain lengthy because of earlier under-ordering and industrial bottlenecks. In a statement to CNN, chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the military "has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President's choosing." "Since President Trump took office, we have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests," he said. The findings contrast with recent comments by Donald Trump, who denied any shortage of US weapons even while requesting additional funding for missile procurement. "We're asking for a lot of reasons, beyond even what we're talking about in Iran," Trump said last month. "Munitions in particular, at the high end we have a lot, but we're preserving it." "It's a small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top," he added. The report said shrinking stockpiles could also affect future military aid to Ukraine and support for allies that rely on US-made missile systems. Before the war began, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine and other military leaders had warned the White House that a prolonged campaign could strain weapons inventories, particularly those also used to support Israel and Ukraine, CNN previously reported. Concern has also surfaced in Congress. Arizona Democratic Senator Mark Kelly said last month, "The Iranians do have the ability to make a lot of Shahed drones, ballistic missiles, medium range, short range and they've got a huge stockpile." "So at some point … this becomes a math problem and how can we resupply air defense munitions. Where are they going to come from?" A March 4 CNN report said concerns over US weapons stockpiles had already been mounting before the Iran conflict intensified. Later that day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran is "producing, by some estimates, over 100 of these missiles a month. Compare that to the six or seven interceptors that can be built a month." He added that destroying Iran's missile production capacity was a key objective of the US campaign. Before launching strikes on Iran over the weekend, one of the Trump administration's clearest confrontations with the limits of US munition reserves involved Ukraine. Last July, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth paused a weapons shipment to Ukraine during a Pentagon review of military aid. CNN reported that Hegseth acted on a memo from Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, who has previously argued for conserving US stockpiles for a possible future conflict with China.