JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated investors are underestimating global economic risks, including wars, U.S.-China tensions, and rising government deficits. He advised against buying equities or long-dated U.S. Treasurys, predicting higher interest rates due to persistent U.S. budget deficits.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warns investors are underestimating global economic risks, including geopolitical conflicts and rising U.S. deficits. He advises against buying equities and long-dated U.S. Treasurys at current prices, predicting higher interest rates due to persistent budget deficits.
New research from George Mason University's Mercatus Center warns that delaying Social Security reform could negatively impact the bond market and the broader U.S. economy. With the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund projected to deplete in Q4 2032, inaction may lead to increased borrowing, higher interest rates, and a potential fiscal crisis.
The UK's record-breaking heatwave is causing significant economic disruption, with economists warning of productivity losses and damaged growth. The situation highlights inequalities in flexible working and the absence of maximum temperature regulations in many workplaces.
The West Asia conflict presents economic risks to India, including potential disruptions to oil and fertilizer imports via the Strait of Hormuz and reduced remittances from the Gulf. El Niño-induced monsoon failures also threaten agriculture. Despite these, India's strong foreign exchange reserves and fiscal space offer resilience.
Russian Deputy PM Alexander Novak stated at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that a recent global dip in energy investments poses risks to the international economy, warning that supply and demand balances will suffer without continued investment.
Korea faces "three highs" (inflation, exchange rates, interest rates) post-election. Government policies to suppress fuel prices have unintended consequences, while a weak won, rising interest rates, stock market volatility, and housing market risks pose significant challenges.
The OECD warns the UK faces diesel shortages, especially in rural areas, due to the Iran conflict. It forecasts modest UK growth but notes risks to energy supplies and higher food prices.
The ECB may raise interest rates to combat inflation driven by the Iran war's oil supply shock, despite risks to the Eurozone economy, as even dovish policymakers lose confidence in a quick resolution.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, cautions against market exuberance due to unresolved trade issues and escalating Middle East tensions, despite strong trading volumes benefiting Wall Street.
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsUnicredit also have a note out on the oil market this morning, in which they warn:The Iran war has triggered one of the largest disruptions to physical oil supply in modern history. While de‑escalation could ease some geopolitical risk premiums, the damage to production, exports and logistics means markets are unlikely to quickly return to pre‑war conditions.We now assume a normalization in Gulf exports by end-June (vs. mid-May prior) and a slower Gulf production recovery. The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock.We assume that global oil demand falls on a year-over-year basis by 1.7mb/d in 2026Q2 and 0.1mb/d in 2026 given the jump in refined product prices. Because extreme inventory draws are not sustainable, even sharper demand losses could be required if the supply shock persists longer.Adverse scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average just over $100 assuming Gulf exports only normalize by end-July.Severely adverse scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average at nearly $120 assuming Gulf exports normalize by end-July and 2.5mb/d of persistent reduction to Gulf capacity. This 2.5mb/d of scarring is equivalent to Hormuz flows not recovering above 70% (till pipeline capacity is expanded).Benign scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average just under $80 assuming Gulf exports normalize by mid-June, no capacity reduction, and stronger US and core OPEC supply responses. Continue reading...
Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden has warned that record-high global stock markets do not reflect macroeconomic risks and will face an adjustment. She cited concerns about private credit markets, highly valued AI stocks, and other risky valuations. The FTSE 100 fell over 0.5% on Friday following her interview, amid wider market concerns about the Iran war.
