Prediction markets doubt the longevity of the US-Iran ceasefire, with a Polymarket contract indicating 50-50 odds of a 14-day halt in US strikes, amid skepticism fueled by Trump's readiness for renewed action and Iran's denial of direct negotiations.
Polymarket, piattaforma internazionale di mercati di previsione, è stata bloccata in Italia dall'Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli dal 27 luglio, considerata un operatore di scommesse non autorizzato. Simili restrizioni sono state imposte anche in Francia, Turchia, Spagna e Paesi Bassi.
Un trader affirme sur X avoir transformé 1 000 dollars en plus de 16 000 dollars en dix semaines grâce à des prompts Grok sur les marchés prédictifs. Cette performance, invérifiable et utilisée à des fins promotionnelles, intervient alors que Grok s'intègre officiellement à Polymarket et Kalshi, malgré des résultats contrastés pour les IA dans le trading réel.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are experiencing significant institutional growth. Firms and AI agents use event contracts for price discovery and trader evaluation, with monthly volumes reaching billions, despite challenges in execution and potential for concentrated edge.
Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi saw $5.57B in World Cup trading volume, pushing the sector into mainstream sports betting. While a few traders captured most profits, the surge highlights potential commercial applications but also intensifies US regulatory scrutiny over whether these platforms are derivatives or gambling.
France's gambling regulator, ANJ, has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket, a crypto prediction-market platform, after its earlier transaction geofence was circumvented. The ANJ deems Polymarket an unauthorized gambling offering, citing addiction and integrity risks.
La finale du Mondial a généré 5,69 milliards de dollars de volume sur les marchés prédictifs Kalshi et Polymarket. Cette croissance massive attire de nouveaux acteurs mais déclenche une bataille réglementaire entre la CFTC et neuf États américains sur la classification des contrats sportifs.
Hyperliquid plans a HIP-4 upgrade allowing external operators to create prediction markets, challenging Polymarket. Deployers must stake 500,000 HYPE ($31.7M), with validators retaining broad oversight. This aims to expand market creation beyond validators, mirroring the success of HIP-3's perpetual futures.
Türkiye, Milli Piyango İdaresi Genel Müdürlüğü kararıyla yasa dışı bahis gerekçesiyle Polymarket platformuna erişimi engelledi. Bu yasak, Fransa, Almanya ve Rusya gibi diğer ülkelerin benzer kısıtlamalarının ardından geldi ve Paribu'nun entegrasyonunu etkileyebilir.
L'Autorité nationale des jeux (ANJ) a ordonné le blocage de la plateforme de paris prédictifs Polymarket en France depuis le 16 juillet. Cette décision fait suite à une offre de jeux d'argent non autorisée, des soupçons de paris truqués et l'absence de vérification d'identité, malgré un géoblocage antérieur contourné.
France's gambling regulator, ANJ, has ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket, an illegal gambling site. This follows a November 2024 geoblock on financial transactions, which users circumvented, leading to continued growth in France.
France's National Gambling Authority (ANJ) has ordered ISPs to block Polymarket, deeming it illegal gambling due to unauthorized operations, lack of protective mechanisms, and potential outcome manipulation. This follows similar actions in other countries and US regulatory scrutiny.
Polymarket's Panama-based entity, Adventure One QSS, is under scrutiny after reports indicate its employees worked from New York, potentially violating a 2022 settlement with the CFTC that barred the prediction market from serving US customers directly.
France's gambling regulator blocks Polymarket, a prediction market platform, deeming it illegal gambling. ESMA adds 14 crypto firms to the MiCA register, slowing licensing pace. Balaji Srinivasan seeks legal assurances from Malaysia after a probe into Network School.
葡萄牙傳奇球星C羅（Cristiano Ronaldo）在告別世界盃後是否落淚，意外成為熱門賭局。預測平台「Polymarket」開出的賭盤吸引數百萬美元下注，最終判定他確實有哭，但此決定因證據透明度不足引發巨大爭議。
Major Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America are implementing new restrictions on employee trading on prediction market platforms due to concerns about the use of nonpublic information. This follows increased scrutiny from US lawmakers and regulators.
L'Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli ha disposto l'inibizione del sito polymarket.com, piattaforma di prediction market, per mancanza di autorizzazioni. Il blocco impedisce l'accesso dall'Italia, nonostante Polymarket sia sponsor della Lazio.
North Carolina enacted a law recognizing the CFTC's authority over prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, imposing a 6% tax on operators' revenue from state residents starting in 2027. This contrasts with other states' crackdowns and litigation.
Polymarket, piattaforma di prediction market, è stata nuovamente oscurata in Italia dall'Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli (ADM). La decisione riapre la questione sulla sua natura giuridica e sui riflessi pubblicitari.
Days before the Johor state election, a crypto-powered prediction market, Polymarket, shows Barisan Nasional (BN) with a 92.8% chance of winning the most seats. Over $25,000 has been bet on the outcome, with caretaker leader Onn Hafiz Ghazi also favored to retain his chief minister position.
La plateforme de marchés prédictifs Polymarket permet désormais les dépôts en Bitcoin via le Lightning Network grâce au protocole Spark, offrant des transactions quasi instantanées et des frais réduits pour ses utilisateurs.
La plateforme de paris crypto Polymarket fait face à une plainte pour "pratiques trompeuses" devant la Cour suprême de New York. La plainte concerne la résolution d'un pari sur une vente de bitcoins par Strategy, où les parieurs estiment que les règles ont été modifiées après coup. 187 millions de dollars étaient en jeu.
Платформа Polymarket отказалась засчитать ставки на слезы Криштиану Роналду после вылета Португалии с ЧМ-2026. Более $5 млн было поставлено на условие, что слезы должны быть видны, а Роналду на поле или скамейке. Результат матча с Испанией (0:1) был отмечен как «нет», несмотря на фото плачущего Роналду. Пользователи оспаривают решение.
Two Polymarket traders are suing the prediction market platform and its executives, alleging breach of contract and deceptive practices. They claim Polymarket rewrote rules after the fact to deny them a payout on a market tied to Strategy's Bitcoin sale, which occurred within the specified timeframe but was disclosed after the deadline.
