Australian Markets and Business News Roundup

We have enough gas, for now

By Daniel Ziffer

Wholesale gas on Australia’s east coast is expected to be well supplied in the fourth quarter of 2026 - from October to December 2026.

That's the view of the competition regulator in its latest Gas Inquiry report, with the ACCC warning further investment is needed to meet long-term demand.

Here are the top lines:

"The east coast gas market is predicted to have a surplus of 13 petajoules (PJ) in quarter 4 of 2026 if the liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers export all their uncontracted gas.

"While this is typically a period of lower gas demand due to milder temperatures, it is the highest forecast quarter 4 surplus since 2023.

"The east coast is also forecast to be well supplied in quarters 1 and 4 of 2027.

"As in previous years, supply over winter 2027 is expected to be tight. There is a risk of shortfalls in quarters 2 and 3 of 2027 if the LNG producers export all their uncontracted gas.

Here's (hard-working: we've already quoted her in another report today!) ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey:

“Our analysis indicates the east coast gas market is expected to be well supplied in late 2026 and early 2027, although supply-demand conditions are likely to tighten in winter 2027, particularly in the southern states.

“Higher production volumes in coming quarters could be used to fill storage facilities ahead of increased demand next winter.”

Telstra CEO is back from Europe and addressing media

By Alison Branley

Telstra chief executive Vicki Brady says she returned as quickly as possible after the Telstra outage and has been in contact with Communications Minister Anika Wells.

She said she spoke with PM Anthony Albanese this morning.

"We have let our customers and Australians down and for that I am deeply sorry," she said.

"I am sorry for the impact that this has had on so many people.

"We take trust in Triple Zero extremely seriously."

She thanked CFO Michael Ackland and the Telstra team for managing the issue

Telstra CEO Vicki Brady about to speak

By Daniel Ziffer

Just back from her cancelled holiday, Telstra's CEO is about to speak to the media.

We'll bring you the latest.

Research says workers falling behind, contradicting PC view

By Daniel Ziffer

Workers' pay has not kept pace with productivity growth for 30 years, research suggests.

In research that contradicts the findings of the Productivity Commission business reporter Gareth Hutchens examines Centre for Policy Development (CPD) findings about the link between productivity and compensation.

"We're also told that the gains from productivity growth are returned to people in three ways: in higher real wages, lower prices, and more free time.

"But researchers from the Centre for Policy Development (CPD) say the typical worker's pay has not kept pace with productivity growth in Australia for 30 years.

"They say the gains from productivity growth have been increasingly captured by businesses.

"They say their findings raise serious questions about Australia's wage-setting and bargaining institutions, ownership, and the future direction of technology."

The findings were presented at the Economic Society of Australia's annual conference in Canberra.

Australian dividends returned to growth in 2025-26 for first time in two years

By Daniel Ziffer

Interesting data crunching from Computershare, which manages a lot of share registries.

The global financial administration services company's report said that dividend payouts rose 2.8% to $99.4 billion in 2025–26, comfortably ahead of the report’s projections of $96.1 billion.

Dividends paid between November and April increased 7.5% year-on-year to $51.8B, or 8.8% on an underlying basis, more than offsetting a weaker first half.

Miners wot done it

Mining led the recovery. There was a rebound in mining dividends, supported by stronger commodity prices and a modest increase in payout ratios, which accounted for about 90% of the dividend increase.

Dividend strength in the second half (November to April) was enough to lift sector payouts for the full year despite first-half declines. Nine mining companies in 10 raised or held dividends, well ahead of the wider market.

Outside mining, growth led with general financials, transport, industrial goods and services, as well as media. By contrast, oil, gas and energy dividends fell by around a fifth, though the report notes that the current oil shock may support dividend recovery. Food and beverage sectors also declined, while bank dividends (one quarter of all Australian dividends) inched ahead just 1.5%,

Franking credits? Australian companies gave out $28.4 billion during the year, up 3.2%.

ASX 200 opens flat

By Daniel Ziffer

The flagship ASX 200 index is slightly lower -0.02% or -1.6 points to 8,760.9 points at opening.

Coles still reviewing ACCC's Kalgoorlie ruling

By Emilia Terzon

Bit of an update on a story we brought you last week, where the consumer watchdog made quite a substantial ruling to block Coles for opening a second supermarket in the regional WA mining city, Kalgoorlie.

The ACCC made this ruling on the basis that a second Coles could wipe out a smaller independent supermarket in the city, and that it would then make it difficult for a new entrant to open up too. The only big name not in Kalgoorlie is Aldi.

Coles has several avenues for appeal. We've asked the company if they've decided they'll do this, but they told us they are still reviewing the ACCC's decision and "considering next steps".

More on this case here.

VPPs might take power out of your hands...

By Daniel Ziffer

...but they appear to put cash in your pocket.

Although the ACCC is sounding the alarm about potentially one-sided deals, and the need for greater consumer protections, people signing up to virtual power plants (VPPs) are reaping the rewards at the moment.

Check out the yellow lines.

Here's what ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey said about the sector:

The ACCC is calling for an overarching consumer duty with supporting electricity-specific protections to ensure products and services are designed and delivered in consumers' interests.

These supporting protections include requiring battery sellers and installers to sign up to a code of conduct to access the Cheaper Home Batteries Program, as well as expanding energy ombuds scheme coverage to resolve more residential and small business disputes.

"We will continue to actively monitor consumer complaints and where issues are able to be addressed under the Australian Consumer Law, we will hold solar and battery installers, retailers and suppliers accountable," Ms Brakey said.

Batteries working to lower power bills, ACCC finds

By Daniel Ziffer

A new report from our consumer watchdog has sketched out the savings for homes that have batteries connected to solar panels and the grid.

There were more than 400,000 batteries installed across Australia in past year, but energy‑specific consumer protection reforms are needed to address a range of emerging issues, the ACCC’s latest Electricity Market Inquiry report reveals.

Here are some of the key points:

Households with solar and battery systems had electricity bills that were between about $329 and $909 (20-52 per cent) lower over the course of a year compared to customers using electricity from the grid only.

Savings were even greater for the 24% of solar and battery customers participating in virtual power plants, with bills typically $762 to $1,093 (57-63%) lower.

A virtual power plant (VPP) is a service where generation from different locations, like home batteries, are aggregated and controlled by a central operator. So you let the generator "into" your battery, to make the most of it.

But it's not all one way, says ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey:

“Households that have invested in batteries are achieving significant savings, particularly when their battery is connected to a virtual power plant.

“Virtual power plants can help households get more from their battery by shifting energy use away from peak periods and sending it back to the grid when it is most valuable. This can help customers lower bills and pay off their system faster.”

But VPPs are complex and customers bear most of the risk for the operator's performance and whether benefits are achieved.

“When customers join a virtual power plant, they hand over control of their battery to an operator and are rewarded for its use to support the broader system. It is important customers understand this when signing up to participate in a virtual power plant.

"Depending on their circumstances, some households may be better off with solar and a battery alone. Customers should make sure they understand the benefits and risks of any product that they sign up to."

Want to buy most of a town?

By Daniel Ziffer

It's almost the weekend and you're potentially thinking about getting a new job.

Maybe you'd like to buy large slabs of a historic NSW town?

ABC Central West's Lani Oataway has a deal for you.

Qantas beats the world on leaving on time

By Daniel Ziffer

You are allowed to not believe me.

I am also highly sceptical.

But, globally, Qantas was the most punctual airline in the world in June.

Results from industry mainstay OAG put its "on-time performance" at 87.16%, the best of major airlines.

Virgin Australia is in the (smaller) "large airlines" category and was 18th, with an 80.12% on-time performance over its 13,192 flights in the month.

US tariff turmoil continues as Australia hit with penalty for slavery

By Daniel Ziffer

The Trump administration is proposing a 12.5 per cent tariff on Australian imports, a measure it claims is in response to issues with forced labour in supply chains.

Colleague Brad Ryan has an eye-opening summation of the issue.

The US intends to put a 12.5 per cent tariff on Australian products, effectively replacing a 10 per cent tariff that was struck down by the US Supreme Court in February.

The legal basis for the tariff is an investigation into forced labour and slavery, which was launched just after Mr Trump vowed to find ways around the court ruling.

A tariff of 10 per cent is also proposed for countries that the Trafficking in Persons Report has rated worse than Australia, including Bangladesh, Cambodia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Indonesia.

Our market set to open flat

By Daniel Ziffer

Australian shares are set to open flat on Friday as potential gains in gold and mining stocks countered potential losses in the energy sector, while investors fretted over the delayed reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from renewed geopolitical tensions.

The local share price index future sedged 0.1% lower, a 26.5-point discount to the underlying S & P/ASX 200 index close. The benchmark closed 0.3% lower on Thursday.

The New Zealand equities market will be closed today due to the Matariki public holiday. It's only the fourth time the holiday will be celebrated and there's a great explainer from the Museum of New Zealand about the star cluster its named for and the significance behind it.

- Reuters

Telstra outage: What cost?

By Daniel Ziffer

What are the business costs of Telstra outage?

ABC Business Daily talks it through.

Before we file today's episode, yesterday's is a great way to catch up on some of the broader issues affecting the telco this week.

Listen to RN Breakfast host Carrington Clarke and me as we examine the business costs of this chaos and what it could mean for Telstra’s bottom line.

We also look at the latest rental data, which confirms a troubling tale for those looking for somewhere to live.

While the property conversation in Australia so often focuses on those looking to buy homes, what do the numbers tell us about those who aren't in that position?

ICYMI: Telstra outage estimated to cost hundreds of millions, but compensation not guaranteed

By Daniel Ziffer

Great read from my pal Nassim Khadem on the potential cost of the Telstra outage.

Here's a short bit that's quite instructive for those thinking about seeking compensation for business losses.

Dr Mark Gregory encouraged impacted businesses to contact Telstra in the first instance and see if the telco would offer compensation.

"Put in a complaint and say, 'Look, I've had losses', [and] see what compensation that they would offer," he said.

Dr Gregory said the Telecommunications Industry Ombudsman could be contacted as the next resort.

Telstra was warned, ABC reveals

By Daniel Ziffer

Telstra was repeatedly warned by academics and government agencies it was vulnerable to the kind of issue that caused this week's national outage.

It's been revealed by our new colleague Cam Wilson, national AI and technology reporter, that the concern that has been repeatedly raised in recent years about a software bug that caused its clocks to go out of sync — which is the reason Telstra has given for this week's mega-outage.

As he writes:

Swinburne University professor Allison Kealy, an expert in positioning, navigation and timing, told the ABC she had raised this exact scenario when she approached Telstra earlier this year while seeking support for a proposed critical infrastructure resilience research centre.

Professor Kealy said the pitch to telcos and other critical infrastructure operators was that they needed to identify shared points of failure before an outage exposed them.

"We have been approaching all the critical infrastructure sectors to tell them, we have to act now," she said.

Here's the full article.

Aaaah, there's football on

By Daniel Ziffer

We'll keep you informed all day about what's happening in the world of business, finance and economics.

But don't forget that at this time of the day there are also some pretty thrilling football matches going on!

The markets will still be here when you get back.

Here's what happened overnight

By Daniel Ziffer

US stocks climbed and oil slid as tech hopes outlasted Middle East worries on global markets overnight.

Here's the wrap from Pete Schroeder of Reuters:

Nasdaq gains 1.3%, S & P 500 up 0.81%, Dow gains 0.27%

US crude settles down 2.3% at $71.83 a barrel, Brent falls 2.5% to $76.05

Lower jobless claims suggest stability in US labour market

Chip stocks lead rally on optimism over coming SK Hynix stock sale

Wall Street surged on Thursday while oil prices retreated, as investors rekindled their enthusiasm for technology shares, shaking off worries about renewed military action in the Middle East.

All three major U.S. indices ended the day higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 0.27%, the S & P 500 rising 0.81% and the Nasdaq Composite jumping 1.3%.

The MSCI gauge of stocks across the globe was up 0.72%.

Stocks rose despite renewed conflict i