Bitcoin Faces Critical Weekend Test Near $62,900 Amid Options Expiry

Bitcoin enters the weekend near $62,900, less than 1% above the July 31 intraday low, and Deribit has already settled roughly $9.6 billion in monthly Bitcoin options. The venue settles monthly contracts at 08:00 UTC on the last Friday of each month, and live expiry data placed July’s Bitcoin notional near $9.7 billion.

The immediate price test for the weekend sits at $62,000, where a sustained break would leave Bitcoin about 3% from the $60,000 put, which carries $1.17 billion in open interest, according to the current CoinGlass snapshot.

The July 31 high of $65,266 defines another boundary, with $64,500 serving as the first repair level.

Capital resting within 1% of spot across Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, and Bybit will determine how far weekend orders travel, since a broad reduction in nearby liquidity gives each market order more influence, and the side losing more capital determines the direction.

The depth test uses three comparisons: the four-hour median from 04:00 to 08:00 UTC, the four-hour median from 08:00 to 12:00 UTC, and the latest reading entering Aug. 1. An aggregate decline of at least 15% across three major venues would confirm a market-wide withdrawal of nearby liquidity.

Bid depth and ask depth carry separate consequences. A 20% loss in bids that exceeds the decline in asks would reduce the capital available to absorb sales near spot. A sharper contraction in asks would create open air above Bitcoin, allowing modest spot demand to cover more distance.

CoinGlass’s first-half data placed much of Bitcoin’s two-sided depth on Binance and OKX, with Bybit forming another large offshore pool.

Coinbase carries a separate role because dollar-led buying can expose whether US spot demand supports a rebound. Coinbase Research found that BTC depth moved toward the bid during June as bids firmed and asks thinned.

The article highlights key markers for the weekend path analysis. Bitcoin's weekend starting area is around $62,900, with the July 31 intraday low at approximately $62,426 serving as the first downside reference. A breakdown level is identified at $62,000, where a sustained loss opens the path toward $60,000. The largest downside hedge is the $60,000 put, carrying about $1.17 billion in open interest. The distance from $62,900 to $60,000 is approximately 4.6%, making it a live target if $62,000 breaks. The first repair level is $64,500, an early sign of buyers reversing Friday’s damage. The July 31 high or reclaim level is around $65,266 / $65,300, with a break above repairing the immediate breakdown. Next upside zones are $66,000 / $68,000, becoming relevant only after $65,300 clears. Expired monthly BTC options totaled $9.6B–$9.7B, explaining why post-expiry liquidity matters. The depth band to monitor is ±1% of spot, measuring capital close enough to absorb weekend orders.

The bearish path through $62,000

The bearish case begins with sustained trading under $62,000, since a brief wick under that level provides little evidence on its own. Price needs to stay below it through attempted rebounds, with spot sales leading futures, open interest expanding during the decline, and perpetual funding holding near neutral or positive territory.

That combination would show new derivatives positions entering behind coin sales. Refilled sell orders during each rebound would add another confirmation, since sellers would keep rebuilding resistance above price as bids absorb less capital below it.

Under those conditions, $60,000 becomes the next destination because the current options snapshot places its largest downside hedge there, less than 5% below the weekend’s starting price.

The late-June area near $58,000 appears on the map only after Bitcoin loses $60,000. Until then, extending the target lower would outrun the evidence available from the July 31 range and the options book.

The US-traded spot Bitcoin ETF channel also closes for the weekend. Farside Investors recorded $233.1 million of net inflows on July 30, taking cumulative net inflows to about $51.64 billion before July’s final tally.

Spot exchanges must absorb weekend coin sales until ETF trading resumes Monday. CME cryptocurrency derivatives can transmit hedge demand throughout the weekend under the exchange’s 24/7 schedule.

Key signals to watch for bearish confirmation include sustained trading below $62,000 (not just a wick), indicating support loss rather than noise. Bid depth within 1% of spot falling 20%+ and faster than asks would mean less capital is available to absorb spot selling. A decline visible across three or more major venues would confirm a market-wide liquidity withdrawal. Spot selling leading futures moves would show actual coin sales, not only leverage. Open interest rising during the decline suggests new positions are entering behind the move. Funding remaining neutral or positive while price falls indicates longs are not fully flushed yet. Refilled sell orders above price during rebounds would show sellers rebuilding resistance. The next level is $60,000, the largest downside hedge and first major destination after $62,000 fails, with a secondary level near $58,000 only relevant after $60,000 breaks.

The bullish path through $65,300

The bullish case starts with ask-side depth contracting faster than bids. Shallow sell-side liquidity would allow spot buying to lift Bitcoin through $64,000, then $64,500, with less capital than the July 31 deeper book absorbed.

A move above $65,300 would clear Friday’s high and repair the immediate breakdown. The strongest version would feature Coinbase and other dollar markets leading, spot volume expanding, open interest declining through the rebound, and funding holding steady.

Those conditions would tie the move to direct buying and short covering with limited evidence of fresh long positions chasing price.

Once Bitcoin clears $65,300, the next visible levels are near $66,000 and $68,000, with the order book determining the pace. Thin asks can turn the options reset into squeeze fuel, especially when traders close shorts as spot buyers remove offers above the market.

The weekend outcome will define the setup ETF traders receive Monday. A bearish close below $62,000, confirmed by a sustained break, weak bids, and spot-led selling, would mean ETF traders reopen with Bitcoin inside the route toward $60,000. A range close between $62,000 and $65,300, where price crosses $63,000 repeatedly but fails both boundaries, would indicate weekend changed volatility but not direction. A repair above $64,500, with spot buying lifting price without a funding spike, would show buyers partially reversed Friday’s breakdown. A bullish close above $65,300, where Friday's high clears, asks stay thin, and Coinbase/dollar markets lead, would reopen $66,000 and $68,000 as upside levels. A squeeze setup, with open interest falling during a rebound while spot volume expands, suggests the move is driven by buying and short covering, not fresh leverage. A failed rebound, where price rejects $64,500–$65,300 and sell orders refill, indicates bears keep control of the weekend range.

Sunday’s final session will define the setup ETF traders receive Monday, with CME cryptocurrency contracts already active through the weekend.