Brazilian President Lula Launches Fourth Term Campaign, Emphasizing Sovereignty

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has formally launched his campaign for a fourth term.

On Sunday, Workers’ Party supporters filled a Sao Paulo convention centre with red flags and chants of “Lula” as the 80-year-old politician – who returned to power in 2023 after serving two previous terms from 2003 to 2010 – announced that he was running for the presidency for a seventh time.

He told supporters that, should he win the October election, it would be his final term.

Rather than focusing on his domestic record, Lula’s speech highlighted Brazil’s place in an increasingly unstable world. He called for more defence spending and promised to protect Brazil’s reserves of rare earths and other critical minerals from foreign control.

“I want to be prepared, so that no one invades this country,” Lula said.

He also warned that China, the United States and France would not be allowed access to Brazil’s mineral wealth without respecting the country’s sovereignty.

Trump’s shadow looms over the election

Lula’s message reflects growing tensions between Brasilia and Washington. The United States imposed two rounds of tariffs on Brazilian goods in July, citing unfair trade practices, an accusation rejected by the Brazilian government.

Trump has also maintained close ties with the family of Lula’s main challenger, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

“In Brazil, we do not accept anyone sticking their nose where it does not belong,” Lula told the convention.

Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, emerged as the right’s leading candidate after his father was convicted of plotting to overturn the 2022 election result and prevent Lula from taking office.

Lula has sought to use the Bolsonaro family’s relationship with Trump to cast the election as a choice between national independence and submission to foreign interests. He has described Flavio Bolsonaro as a “traitor to the nation”, an accusation the senator denies.

Leonardo Paz, a political science professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, told the AFP news agency that the sovereignty argument had arrived at a useful moment for the president.

“The sovereignty message comes at the perfect time for Lula,” Paz said, adding that it allowed him to identify an external enemy and blame it for some of Brazil’s problems.

A recent Datafolha survey placed Lula ahead in a possible second-round contest against Flavio Bolsonaro, 48 percent to 43 percent, respectively. The margin remains narrow in a country deeply divided between supporters of the left-wing president and the Bolsonaro movement.

Domestic pressures remain

Lula can point to economic growth, high employment and social programmes that supporters say have improved the lives of poorer Brazilians. At the convention, social worker Cristiane Rosa Julho told AFP that Lula’s policies had enabled her family to own a home for the first time in generations.

However, rising living costs and concerns over the public deficit remain significant weaknesses for the government.

Crime is also expected to be a major election issue, particularly in communities where organised criminal groups exercise considerable control.

Corruption investigations, meanwhile, have reached both camps: Flavio Bolsonaro is under scrutiny over alleged efforts to secure funding from a banker accused of financial fraud, while one of Lula’s sons is being investigated over suspected corruption and influence peddling.

Lula also addressed concerns over whether his advanced age could limit his ability to serve another term. He told supporters that regular walking and strength training had left him “in great shape” and fitter than when he first won the presidency in 2002.

For Lula, experience is likely to be one of the campaign’s central arguments. His opponents, however, will seek to make the election a judgement on the cost of living, public security and the political controversies surrounding his government.