El Nino conditions expected by August, bringing extreme weather

El Nino conditions are set to emerge by August, bringing extreme weather.

This natural phenomenon will cause droughts in regions like West Africa and South Africa. Other areas, including the equatorial Pacific, will see heavy rainfall. The World Meteorological Organization expects a moderate to strong El Nino.

Geneva: AFP spoke with Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of climate prediction at the United Nations' weather and climate agency, which said Tuesday that warming El Nino conditions were expected to develop before the end of August.

The natural climate phenomenon is expected to drive more extreme weather and rainfall, according to the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO), although its intensity is hard to predict at this stage.

What can we expect?

Moufouma Okia said El Nino has a temporary warming effect, and while it originates in the tropics, it affects a large part of the planet.

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"When El Nino occurs, droughts are expected in West Africa, the Sahel, South Africa, Australia, and southeast Asia," he said.

"Conversely, other regions experience abundant rainfall, such as the southeastern United States and especially the equatorial Pacific region. Therefore, different regions will react differently to the phenomenon."

Moufouma Okia stressed that El Nino does not act in isolation, but interacts with other weather phenomena which can amplify or weaken its intensity.

"According to our projections, we will broadly see an El Nino event ranging from moderate to strong," he said.

"But it's important to stress that each El Nino event is unique. One might think that a weak El Nino will have no consequences -- but that's wrong. Depending on the country and the context, the consequences can be just as damaging as with strong events."

Are countries ready?

Moufouma Okia said the WMO would give countries and national weather services its findings -- but it was down to them to refine the information at a local level.

He hoped countries would take the data into account in preparing for El Nino.

"WMO models are capable of making forecasts six months in advance. So we hope that countries will have had time to anticipate," he said.

However, sometimes the consequences go beyond a country's capacity to respond -- as happened during the last El Nino, between 2023 and 2024.

"Back then, there was a decrease in rainfall in Panama that affected the canal, and therefore the global economy," he said.

Are countries cooperating on weather?

Moufouma Okia said there was progress, with countries exchanging more information regarding El Nino.

"There were fewer casualties in 2023-2024 than in 1997. So we can assume that countries are better prepared, or have learned from previous events," he said.

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Countries understand the need to share data, and "even countries in conflict" are cooperating, the climate prediction chief said.

"To predict a phenomenon on the other side of the world, you need data from the other side".