Fed's Dot Plot Faces Uncertain Future Under New Chair Warsh

When the Federal Reserve wraps up its policy meeting Wednesday, one important thing could be missing — a dot.

The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee is set to release its quarterly update of where individual officials expect interest rates to head this year and through 2028 and beyond. Markets closely parse the grid, known more commonly as the "dot plot," for information on how Fed officials view the economy and its impact on monetary policy.

However, most Fed-watchers on Wall Street expect new Chair Kevin Warsh won't participate, either because he feels he's not ready after having only been in office since May 22 — or simply because he doesn't like the dot plot and its implications for "forward guidance."

Declining to submit a dot would counter some 14 years of post-financial crisis practice for the Fed, and risk alienating other FOMC officials who favor the way it helps them communicate with the public. However, it also could be an effective first step for a central bank leader who has vowed fundamental changes for how the institution operates.

"It seems to me fairly likely that he doesn't want to submit a rate forecast," said Bill English, former head of monetary affairs at the Fed and now a professor at Yale. "There may be others on the committee who don't particularly like the dot plot, who might be willing to do that, too."

'The Fed's human'

Warsh objects to the dot plot and other methods of forward guidance because he believes they limit the Fed's decision-making capabilities.

The dot plot belongs to a larger set of data called the Summary of Economic Projections, which also includes the outlook for unemployment, inflation and gross domestic product. The SEP is updated quarterly and includes the median outlook for each category and as such is not an official forecast but merely the midpoint of the range among FOMC meeting participants.

Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave expects Warsh won't submit a dot, while Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said in a note that, "We assume that Warsh will not submit dots in light of his past criticism of forward guidance, but we are not sure."

During his confirmation hearing in April, Warsh cited the SEP as part of a broader problem at the Fed with overcommunication. Specifically, he cited the Fed's mistaken "transitory" call on inflation in 2021-22 that led to a series of aggressive rate hikes to combat the biggest price surge in 40 years.

"The Fed tells the whole world what their dots are going to be, what their forecasts are going to be," he said then. "Well, the Fed's human. Then they hold onto those forecasts longer than they should. I think if the Fed were to wait until it gets into a meeting before making a decision, that incremental deliberation can keep the central bank from compounding its errors. I think these are big changes that are needed."

Markets are watching

Still, markets hinge on the dot plot and the rest of the SEP, and may have to learn to live without it if Warsh has his way.

"To me it never made a lot of sense that [the SEP] at times was market moving, because its accuracy has been at best middling," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. "But it is an avenue through which the Fed expresses a view, and the market tends to move on those views."

Economist Claudia Sahm cautioned that should Warsh and others not participate, it could send the wrong message to markets. Specifically, she said investors could take the news to mean that Warsh is trying to "hide the hawkish shift" in the committee to fight inflation with elevated rates.

"Neutralizing the SEP this week might address some of Warsh's concerns, but it would almost certainly create new ones," wrote Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors. "A Fed that appears to be concealing its own debate could look complacent about inflation, which is exactly the credibility it can't afford to lose."

This meeting is expected to be an interesting test of Warsh's new communications strategy.

In addition to his views on the dot plot and SEP, markets also will be watching for changes to the post-meeting statement and his views on whether he will continue to hold news conferences after each meeting.