India Plans for Weaker Monsoon Rains and Crop Impact

India is drawing up plans to prepare for weaker-than-usual monsoon rains and the likely impact on crops in the world’s most populous nation.

The monsoon season has so far brought rains about 43 percent below average, and India’s Meteorological Department has forecast continued weak precipitation through the week ending July 2, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said on Tuesday.

The monsoon delivers about 70 percent of the annual rains in India and is critical for replenishing water sources in the nation of at least 1.4 billion people, where nearly half of the farmland lacks irrigation and about half of the population relies on farming for its livelihood.

The rains typically arrive in Kerala, southwest India, on June 1, and sweep northwards. They are critical to the country’s economic health, enabling farmers to plant cotton, soya beans, sugar cane, rice and corn.

This year, they arrived three days late in Kerala, causing concern about the impact on India’s $4 trillion economy.

Climate change is shifting weather patterns and raising average temperatures in India, and the El Nino weather phenomenon this year has brought warnings of lower rainfall.

There was significant relief for Mumbai on Tuesday when the first downpours finally swept in after weeks of blazing heat, delighting many of the 22 million inhabitants of Mumbai’s metropolitan area, even though some suburbs only had a light downpour.

“The Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into remaining parts of central Arabian Sea, and some more parts of Maharashtra including Mumbai,” the Meteorological Department said.

Authorities in Mumbai imposed restrictions on water usage last week, limiting supplies to swimming pools and construction sites.

Many residents slept on beaches to gain respite from the sweltering nighttime conditions, in a dense city where many live without air conditioning.

Chouhan said water conservation must be accorded the highest priority due to this year’s climate concerns.

“Every drop of water is precious and planning is being carried out with that objective,” he said, adding that this includes the immediate repair and strengthening of reservoirs, ponds, streams and dams.

Concerns over crops, food prices and economic growth were heightened last month when the Meteorological Department warned that an El Nino-weakened monsoon in 2026 could deliver the driest season the country has seen in 11 years.

Australia’s weather bureau warned earlier this month that an El Nino weather pattern has formed in the tropical Pacific and could intensify in the second half of the year, becoming one of the strongest in seven decades.