Queensland Labor leader Steven Miles claims caucus support after byelection swing

Queensland opposition leader Steven Miles says he has caucus support to remain Labor leader “right now”, after the party suffered a swing against it at a byelection in the north of Brisbane.

Labor is expected to retain the northern Brisbane seat of Stafford, but recorded an 8% swing against it on primary votes. Candidate Luke Richmond was ahead of the Liberal National party candidate, Fiona Hammond, by 768 votes as of Sunday morning, with counting expected to continue later in the day.

Queensland’s electoral commission has yet to declare the byelection result but the premier, David Crisafulli, conceded defeat on Saturday night, saying the LNP had fallen “agonisingly short”.

Labor was well behind on primary votes but had picked up a strong majority of preferences from minor parties, independent candidates, and the Greens.

Stafford has been almost continuously held by Labor since 2001. The byelection was caused by the death of former Labor MP turned independent Jimmy Sullivan, who had been expelled from the party in 2025 after winning reelection in 2024.

Conceding the seat on Saturday night, Crisafulli praised his party for an “incredible campaign”.

“I do think we’re going to fall agonisingly short, guys. I think we’re going to fall agonisingly short, but boy oh boy, what an incredible campaign from an incredible, incredible candidate,” he said.

Miles claimed victory at Labor’s packed election night party, held at the Edinburgh Castle Hotel.

Asked if Labor would do better if it were led by someone else, Miles said that would be “a decision for the caucus, but I have the support of the caucus right now to be leader”.

Miles attributed Labor’s victory to its campaign against what the party said was a 93-bed cut to the local Prince Charles hospital.

“What is clear is that the 2028 election will be fought on the LNP’s health cuts and those battle line will have been drawn right here in Stafford,” Miles said.

With a margin of 5.3%, Stafford was the 12th-closest Labor seat at the 2024 election and was considered marginal. Labor had lost it just once since it was reestablished in 2001.

A number of factors complicated the byelection for Labor.

The Greens’ how-to-vote card did not recommend its voters preference either Labor or the LNP, unlike in 2024.

The LNP result was also buoyed by One Nation’s decision not to stand a candidate.

The left vote was split among a large number of leftwing independents and minor parties, including high profile socialist candidate Liam Parry and the Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis parties, which stood for the first time.

Pauline Hanson’s chief of staff defended One Nation’s decision not to stand a candidate, saying it would have been a waste of party resources.

James Ashby said the short four-week campaign did not give One Nation enough time to give a candidate a chance in the electorate.