Russia's drone disinformation campaign against Baltic states falls flat

PRAGUE — Russia is trying to turn a string of stray combat drones appearing over the Baltic countries into a political crisis between Ukraine and some of its staunchest allies. So far, the effort appears to have fallen flat.

After a wave of drone incidents across Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — blamed on Russia using electronic warfare to redirect Ukrainian drones into NATO airspace — Moscow accused the three Baltic countries of allowing Ukraine to use their airspace for attacks on Russia and threatened them with retaliation. Baltic officials denied the charges.

A statement issued by the three governments late Friday said they "categorically reject Russia’s blatant disinformation campaign and its fabricated accusations following the airspace violations, which Russia shamelessly uses to mask its military failures."

"This is wrong," Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said of Moscow's accusations at the POLITICO Speakeasy at GLOBSEC, adding that "Ukraine has never asked to use our airspace."

He said Estonia has asked Ukraine to be careful in how it targets its attacks against Russia, but put the blame for any drone incidents squarely on Moscow.

"The reason behind that is the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, and the reason behind that is that Russia is using the electronic warfare to manipulate the data and also to impact the flight path of these drones," he said.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte also underlined that Russia is to blame.

“If drones come from Ukraine, they are not there because Ukraine wanted to send a drone to Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia,” he told reporters in Brussels on Wednesday. “They are there because of the reckless, illegal full-scale attack by Russia.”

That message has been echoed across Europe.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called Moscow menacing the Baltics “completely unacceptable,” underlining that a threat against one EU member state was a threat against the entire bloc.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul also weighed in, accusing Moscow of targeting the Baltics with “absurd Russian allegations and dangerous threats.”

Speaking at POLITICO’s Speakeasy, EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarína Mathernová argued that Europe should see Ukraine not as a burden, but as central to its future defense architecture.

“For me, it’s very easy. Look at the counterfactual,” Mathernová said. “Imagine they’re not with us, but against us.”

Pevkur put the point even more bluntly from the Baltic perspective: “Supporting Ukraine is not charity, it’s an investment in our own security.”

The solidarity matters because the drone problem is real.

In recent weeks, Baltic countries have seen air defense alerts, temporary flight restrictions and military responses.

Earlier this week, a Romanian F-16 operating under NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission shot down a drone over Estonia.

This week, Lithuania temporarily suspended air traffic at Vilnius airport and sent lawmakers underground after a drone alert.

Latvia has faced repeated incursions and its government collapsed following recriminations when two drones hit the Baltic state’s oil facilities. That's feeding domestic pressure over whether its air defenses are ready for the kind of drone-heavy war seen over Ukraine.

Misdirecting drones

The Ukrainian long-range drones appearing over the Baltic countries are a consequence of Kyiv's expanded strike campaign against targets deep inside Russia, including the energy and oil infrastructure that helps sustain Moscow’s war economy.

To stop them, Russia uses electronic warfare systems that can jam satellite navigation signals or spoof them — effectively feeding drones false coordinates. A drone’s autopilot may think it is still heading toward its programmed target while its actual route has shifted.

That can send drones toward neighboring NATO territory — something Baltic and Ukrainian officials say is now happening.

For Kyiv, the balance is delicate. Ukrainian officials have apologized for incidents involving stray drones, while insisting that strikes on Russian military and economic targets are lawful acts of self-defense. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has shown no sign of halting the bombing campaign, which he calls "sanctions" aimed at bringing Russia to its knees.

Russia's air defenses are becoming increasingly porous, prompting it to try to use political pressure to halt the Ukrainian attacks.

“Russia wants to discredit Ukraine in the eyes of countries that are one of the key ones in terms of direct and indirect support for Ukraine,” Mykola Bielieskov, a senior military analyst with the Come Back Alive Initiative and a research fellow at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, told POLITICO. The goal, he said, is to create “a point of contradiction and division” between Kyiv and the Baltic countries.

So far, that effect has not materialized. Baltic officials are not blaming Ukraine for deliberately endangering them, and Latvia has signaled it will not trigger NATO’s Article 4 consultation mechanism over the incursions.

Rather than fraying relations between Ukraine and its allies, it seems to be strengthening them.

In an X post addressed to his Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian counterparts, Wadephul said Germany stood in solidarity with its Baltic allies, adding: “A threat against one ally is a threat against the whole Alliance. We won’t be intimidated. We stand together.”