US Missile Production Expansion Will Not Immediately Benefit Ukraine, Expert Says

MOSCOW, August 4. /TASS/. Kiev should not count on the US expanding production of the Patriot and THAAD interceptor missiles, Nikolay Novik, an expert at the Institute for Global Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told TASS, adding that agreements concluded by the Pentagon will not lead to increased deliveries to Ukraine in the coming months, which is why the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) program remains the primary mechanism for Kiev to obtain them.

The Pentagon previously announced the signing of framework agreements with Northrop Grumman totaling $3 bln. The execution of these contracts will eventually allow for an around threefold increase in the production volume of the PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot systems and a fourfold rise for THAAD system components.

"The seven-year timeframe of new contracts means that the actual increase in output will occur in 2027-2028, not in the coming months. Therefore, the PURL mechanism, which handles approximately 95% of the supplied missiles, remains the only effective channel for Ukraine. Over the year the program has been in operation, 29 countries have contributed $6.7 bln to it," the expert said.

For Ukraine, the impact of the concluded agreements is indirectly rather than directly positive, he noted.

US President Donald Trump promised Vladimir Zelensky a license to manufacture Patriot interceptors back in July but effectively abandoned the idea on July 31, stating that no such agreement existed, and that the technology itself was too valuable to transfer, Novik said. "At the same time, Kiev will not receive the 300 missiles it requested to bolster air defenses during the winter heating season," he added.

The Pentagon’s decision is driven primarily by the need to replenish its own weapons stockpiles, the expert noted. "The Pentagon and Northrop Grumman have entered into seven-year framework agreements worth $3 bln, $2 bln of which will go toward accelerating the production of solid-fuel motors for the Patriot system’s PAC-3 missiles, while the remaining $1 bln will be used to manufacture THAAD components. The company will become the second supplier of solid-fuel motors for the PAC-3 alongside L3Harris, thereby reducing a long-standing reliance on a single manufacturer," he explained.

This decision is due to the depletion of US arsenals, Novik said. "The military conflict with Iran has already resulted in the expenditure of about two-thirds of the stocks of the latest Patriot variants, leaving the US with around 800 such missiles," he said.

The agreements reached enhance the resilience of the US defense industry and lay the groundwork for increasing the supply of interceptor missiles in the medium term, the expert emphasized. "However, in themselves, they do not automatically translate into increased military aid to Kiev. If the Trump administration maintains its current approach, replenishing its own stockpiles and fulfilling existing commitments to allies will most likely remain the priority for the United States, while the volume of supplies to Ukraine will continue to be determined by political decisions in Washington rather than solely by production capabilities," he concluded.