China's Q2 GDP growth slowed to 4.3%, below the government's 4.5-5% target, driven by weak domestic demand despite a 27% surge in exports, highlighting the economy's reliance on foreign sales
The IMF has maintained its projection of 1.1% GDP growth for Russia in 2026 and 2027, unchanged from its April estimates. The report also noted Russia's GDP grew 4.9% in 2024 and is expected to grow 1% in 2025.
The IMF forecasts global GDP growth of 3% for this year and 3.4% for next, a slight downgrade from April. The report cites the Middle East war's impact offset by AI-driven tech demand, with risks still tilted to the downside.
The IMF has raised its UK growth forecast to 1% for this year, making it the third fastest-growing G7 economy in 2026. This upgrade comes amid hopes the economic impact of the Iran conflict may be less severe than feared, with oil prices stabilizing and inflation easing.
Despite global economic headwinds from the Middle East conflict, India's economy shows resilience with strong GST collections, vehicle sales, and UPI transactions. However, a weak monsoon due to El Nino poses a risk to inflation and rural demand, though economists believe the worst is over.
UK households saw a 0.8% drop in real disposable income in Q1 due to rising inflation and capital gains tax, marking the fourth decline in five quarters. The ONS reported 0.6% GDP growth, while political figures like Andy Burnham pledge to tackle living costs, and economists forecast a cautious economic outlook.
Goldman Sachs increases India's 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 6.8% from 6.5%, citing lower oil prices, easing supply disruptions, and resilient domestic demand post-US-Iran peace deal, also raising FY27 forecast to 6.5%.
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has revised its forecast for Russia's GDP growth, lowering it to 1% for 2026 from a previous 1.4%. Projections indicate a 1.5% growth in 2027, accelerating to 1.8% in 2028. The bank also anticipates the Russian Central Bank's key rate to reach 12% by end-2026.
The World Bank lowered its 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.6%, citing high oil prices due to the Iran-Israel conflict. Growth could slow to 2.1% if energy prices remain high, or plummet to 1.3% if financial markets are strained. The bank plans to provide $50-60 billion in aid to developing countries.
Australia's Q1 GDP grew 0.3%, driven by datacentre investment in machinery and equipment. This surge raises climate concerns, as datacentres are projected to significantly increase electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, potentially derailing climate goals.
Australia's Q1 2026 GDP grew 0.3% QoQ and 2.5% YoY, slowing from the previous quarter and below expectations. Factors include moderate household consumption and public spending growth, with extreme weather impacting mining and exports. Private investment rose 6.0%.
Igor Dodon, leader of Moldova's Party of Socialists, stated that Russia's share in Moldova's trade balance has plummeted from 20-30% to 2% in recent years, contributing to zero GDP growth and high inflation.
Australia's GDP grew 2.5% year-on-year and 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, missing forecasts. Subdued household spending and severe weather impacted growth, while the RBA raised rates to 4.35% amid inflation concerns.
Germany's Council of Economic Experts forecasts a mere 0.5% GDP growth in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, with inflation rising to 3%, prompting concerns over the country's economic competitiveness and structural issues like an aging population.
Die EU-Kommission hat ihre BIP-Wachstumsprognose für Deutschland 2026 auf 0,6% halbiert, wegen hoher Energiepreise infolge des Iran-Kriegs. Die EU-Gesamtprognose wurde ebenfalls gesenkt.
The European Commission has revised its economic outlook for Russia, increasing the projected GDP growth for 2026 from 1.1% to 1.3% while lowering the 2027 forecast from 1.2% to 1.1%.
Asia-Pacific markets opened higher Tuesday as oil prices eased slightly following news that President Donald Trump postponed a scheduled attack on Iran. Japan's economy grew 2.1% in Q1, exceeding estimates.
The UK economy grew 0.6% in Q1 2026, exceeding forecasts, despite the war in Iran. Chancellor Rachel Reeves attributes this to the government's economic plan, while experts warn of weaker growth ahead due to energy price shocks and political instability.
Russia's Economic Development Ministry has published its socioeconomic development forecast for 2027 and the 2028-2029 planning period, expecting GDP growth, increased gas production, and changes in oil prices and exports.
Pakistan's economy faces sustained pressure with double-digit inflation expected to persist if global oil prices continue rising amid the Middle East crisis. According to Topline Securities, inflation could average 9-10% over the next year, reaching 11% in Q4 FY26 if oil hits $120/barrel. GDP growth for FY27 has been cut to 2.5-3.0% from 4.0%, while the current account deficit could exceed $8 billion. The Pakistan Stock Exchange declined 15% in Q1, reflecting heavy reliance on imported energy.
The core PCE inflation index rose 0.3% in March to a 3.2% annual rate, the highest since November 2023, while Q1 GDP grew at a 2% annualized pace. Jobless claims fell to 189,000, the lowest since September 1969. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady with four dissents, reflecting internal divisions over monetary policy as inflation persists above target for five years.
US inflation accelerated in March with core PCE rising 0.3% monthly and 3.2% annually, while overall PCE reached 3.5% year-over-year. The Iran war's impact on oil prices created new challenges for the Federal Reserve. GDP growth in Q1 2026 came in at 2%, up from 0.5% in Q4 2025 but below the 2.2% estimate.
Bank expects its base case for GDP growth to be 0.5% this year, lower than IMF’s 0.8% prediction for BritainBusiness live – latest updatesLloyds has warned that the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict could cost it £151m amid rising unemployment and inflation and a slowdown in the housing market.The FTSE 100 group, whose brands include Lloyds Bank, Halifax and Bank of Scotland, issued a downbeat economic forecast that it said reflects the stagflationary consequences – the double hit of rising inflation at the same time as slower economic growth – for the UK and global economies. Continue reading...
The KOSPI reached a record high of 6,475.81, driven by positive GDP data and the indefinite extension of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire. Despite market gains, concerns persist regarding oil prices and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.
