The UAE's planned withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, 2026, is expected to increase oil market volatility and challenge the cartel's long-term price stability, according to ASK Wealth Advisors.
The European Union is monitoring the UAE's decision to leave OPEC on May 1, 2026. While lower oil prices could benefit the EU, Brussels fears the weakening of global energy structures and the implications of US influence on regional organizations.
The UAE's withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ will deal a devastating blow to the OPEC system in the short term and potentially lead to higher oil prices, but in the long run the UAE may increase production, contributing to lower prices, according to Sun Degang, director of Fudan University's Middle East Studies Center.
The UAE's decision to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ represents a significant challenge to the oil cartel and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia. As the third largest OPEC state producing 3.4 million barrels per day before the Iran war, the UAE's exit highlights longstanding dissatisfaction with production quotas and tensions with Riyadh. Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei termed it a sovereign national decision aligned with the UAE's long-term strategic vision. Analysts warn OPEC will be structurally weaker without the UAE, as reduced reserve capacity will complicate supply calibration and price stabilization.
The UAE has announced its intent to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ on Tuesday, with the departure set for May 1. Former UAE diplomat Obaid Ahmed Al-Zaabi warned that other countries are 'very likely' to follow suit, citing the UAE's reduced dependence on oil, economic diversification, and growing frustration with production limits. He also pinned the decision on geopolitical tensions, accusing Iran of retaliatory attacks against Gulf neighbors following the US-Israeli offensive.
The United Arab Emirates has withdrawn from OPEC and OPEC+, marking a serious political blow to the organization and to harmony within the Gulf Cooperation Council. Executive Director Khalil Jahshan of Arab Center Washington DC called the decision not surprising given growing differences between Abu Dhabi and other GCC capitals, viewing it as the first expression of economic and political fallout from the Iran war on the Arab side of the Gulf.
The United Arab Emirates has announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, marking one of the world's largest oil producers leaving the oil cartel amid the severest energy crisis in decades. The move could lead to increased oil supplies in the medium term as Abu Dhabi may scale up production without quota restrictions, while potentially deepening divisions among Middle East countries and undermining regional stability.
