The US Federal Reserve's FOMC maintained interest rates with a 9-3 vote, marking the first time in a decade three members dissented, preferring a quarter-point hike. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized focusing on overall trends and fostering internal debate, while inflation and geopolitical events continue to influence policy.
The US economy grew by 1.5% in Q2 2026, a slowdown from Q1, as rising imports offset consumer spending. Inflation, measured by the PCE price index, eased slightly to 3.7% but remains above the Fed's 2% target. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, though some officials dissented, citing persistent high inflation exacerbated by the Middle East war.
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) announced Project Agorá successfully completed real-value testing of tokenized wholesale cross-border payments. The trials involved 28 financial institutions and central banks, settling 800,000 Swiss francs across 17 scenarios with an average settlement time of 80 seconds.
US government borrowing costs reached 2007 levels after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, fueling investor fears about inflation and the economy's ability to absorb rising prices, with 30-year Treasury yields hitting a 19-year high and stocks falling sharply.
The ECB announced its planned digital euro app will surpass European Accessibility Act requirements, featuring enhanced visual design and screen-reader support. A pilot involving 36 payment providers is set for H2 2027, despite ongoing privacy concerns.
A senior European Central Bank policymaker, Frank Elderson, stated that the climate emergency and nature's breakdown present a dramatically growing risk to the global economy and financial stability. The ECB is increasing its monitoring of financial risks from ecosystem services destruction, with plans to publish analysis on credit loss dynamics for eurozone banks.
The Bank of England warns that high UK inflation, potentially reaching 4.1%, is primarily threatened by the Middle East conflict's impact on oil prices, not domestic pressures. Despite current stability, the MPC fears future wage and price increases if the conflict persists, potentially necessitating interest rate hikes.
Japan's central bank maintains 1.0% interest rate, aligns with market expectations. Yen surges 3.5% after reported intervention, with South Korea joining. BoJ warns of CPI inflation exceeding 2% in 2026's second half.
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75% despite three dissenting votes, heightening scrutiny on Chairman Kevin Warsh's strategy to reduce inflation to the 2% target.
Russia's Central Bank revises 2026 inflation forecast to 6-7% due to fuel price spikes and supply shocks, cuts GDP growth forecast to 0.0-1.0%
Bitcoin traded around $64,000 after the ECB kept interest rates unchanged, tightening financial conditions through quantitative tightening and reduced bond demand, affecting crypto markets through global capital allocation and liquidity.
Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina announced there are no restrictions for investors to withdraw cryptocurrency abroad, but cautioned that Russian law does not protect investors operating outside the country's jurisdiction.
Global markets face a pivotal week with Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England meetings, heightened by Middle East conflict, oil prices above $100, and new US tariffs. Investors also await Big Tech earnings and inflation data for interest rate clues.
The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged but stated it is closely monitoring the economic impact of the Iran war, particularly on energy prices and inflation. Future rate hikes remain possible if deemed necessary to meet the 2% inflation target.
Hedge fund manager John Paulson believes gold is in the early stages of a long-term bull market, citing declining faith in paper currencies and growing demand from central banks and the private sector. He advises investing in early-stage gold miners, specifically mentioning NovaGold Resources.
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are experiencing significant institutional growth. Firms and AI agents use event contracts for price discovery and trader evaluation, with monthly volumes reaching billions, despite challenges in execution and potential for concentrated edge.
Bank of China's Shenzhen and Fujian branches processed two cross-border transactions, each over US$1.7 billion, via the mBridge multilateral CBDC platform. This marks a significant step for the emerging payment network and China's ambition to internationalize the yuan, bypassing Western-centric financial systems.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is concerned that a significant portion of Australians misunderstand how interest rates affect inflation, potentially complicating its monetary policy efforts. A survey revealed only 25% correctly linked higher rates to lower inflation, while over half believed the opposite, impacting public trust and inflation expectations.
The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department convened a meeting in April with top bank CEOs over an advanced AI model, Claude Mythos Preview, that poses an unprecedented cybersecurity threat. Despite its critical role, the Fed itself lacked access to Mythos for months, raising concerns about financial system vulnerabilities and the US lead in AI.
Russia's MOEX Index gained 3.9% and the RTS Index rose 3.59% on Tuesday, with analysts forecasting continued recovery but expressing concerns over a potential tightening of the Bank of Russia's monetary policy. The ruble showed mixed movements against major currencies.
South Korea's central bank chief, Shin Hyun-song, will attend the EMEAP meeting in Singapore to discuss the impact of AI on the financial system, supply chain disruptions, and current economic issues with 10 other regional central bank governors.
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's shift to less transparent communication is prompting financial firms, including F/m Investments with its "WarshGPT" AI tool, to adapt investment strategies to predict monetary policy, creating market uncertainty and new opportunities.
Thailand's central bank is increasing stablecoin oversight, focusing on USDT, to curb illicit finance and "gray money." Measures target cash, forex, and gold trading, expanding compliance for regulated entities and requiring source-of-funds declarations for high-value transactions.
The Bank of Korea's report indicates the global semiconductor market faces undersupply, with the AI-driven supercycle expected to persist. This contradicts investor fears of a market peak, citing slow supply expansion and custom product demand.
