Economy·24.04.2026Resumen IA El Nino Threat Looms Over India's Growth Story: Monsoon Deficit May Spike Food Inflation
India faces mounting economic risks as the India Meteorological Department forecasts below-normal monsoon rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average—the lowest since 2002—due to El Nino conditions. Combined with elevated crude oil prices and fertilizer supply disruptions from the US-Iran conflict, economists warn of upside inflation risks and potential GDP growth downgrade. While IMF has raised India's GDP forecast to 6.5%, a weak monsoon could add pressure on food prices in H2 FY27, though experts believe the impact will remain within RBI's 6% tolerance band.