Bitcoin trades near $65,978, below the short-term holder cost basis of $69,000, as markets anticipate the Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting. Weak labor data and slowing core CPI suggest a less restrictive Fed, but rising oil prices and Treasury yields add complexity, making Bitcoin's rally conditional on the Fed's stance.
Bitcoin's price action is exhibiting "textbook" bear market bottoming behavior, according to analysis by "Frank" on X. Short-term holders are realizing profits, a sign characteristic of a bull market, though some analysts caution against full capitulation.
Glassnode's latest report indicates Bitcoin is in a deep discount phase, with over 95% of short-term holders underwater. Recovery is likely dependent on the dollar index (DXY) falling below 99 or 10-year Treasury yields compressing towards 4.2%.
XRP faces a market split between traders betting on further decline and investors accumulating amid Ripple's expansion into institutional finance, with spot demand and ETF inflows countering derivatives short selling.
Bitcoin fell to $76,500, losing most of May's gains due to US-Iran war tensions. Short-term holders sold over 10,000 BTC at a loss, and ETF outflows surged, signaling market caution and potential downtrend.
Crypto markets turned euphoric as BTC traded above $80,000, but a rally through short-term holders’ cost basis is needed to cement the bull trend.
Bitcoin failed to sustain breaks above $77,000 over the past week despite a brief rally to $79,500, as short-term holders sent 150,000 BTC to exchanges since April 15. Exchange volumes collapsed with Binance down $25 billion monthly, Gate.io down $13 billion, and OKX down $6 billion, reflecting investor apathy not seen since September 2023. Analysts say fresh demand from leveraged traders and expanded spot volumes are needed for a sustained breakout above $80,000.
Bitcoin rebounded 32% to $79,500 on April 22 from its sub-$60,000 multi-year low but failed to break $80,000 resistance, correcting to $76,000. Short-term holders and US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been selling, with $390 million in outflows over three consecutive days, capping recovery momentum.
