Australia's Unemployment Rate Steady at 4.4% in June, RBA Rate Hike Expected

Australia's unemployment rate remained at 4.4 per cent in June, in seasonally adjusted terms.

Data show 76,000 extra people gained employment last month, driven by a 47,000-person rise in part-time employment.

That increase in part-time employment saw the underemployment rate pick up from 6.3 to 6.5 per cent.

In trend terms, the unemployment rate also remained steady at 4.4 per cent.

Economists say the labour market looks resilient in the face of slowing growth, rising inflation and higher interest rates.

But some say the unemployment rate will increase again in coming months as the longer-term effects of the Iran war play out in Australia's economy.

"We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 4.6 per cent by the end of the year," said Harry McAuley, economist for Oxford Economics Australia.

"However, a renewal of hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz presents a significant risk to the outlook."

What does it mean for interest rates?

Economists say it is impressive the labour market is still capable of providing employment for tens of thousands of new people who are entering the labour force to look for work.

They say the participation rate has risen in the last seven months, from 66.6 per cent in November to 67 per cent in June, which highlights how there has been a shift higher in the labour supply.

But the underemployment rate has also increased at the same time, from 5.7 per cent in December to 6.5 per cent in June, which shows an increase in the number of people who would like more hours.

David Bassanese, BetaShares chief economist, said a couple of things could be pushing the participation rate higher.

"It could be that the supply upturn is demand-led, with more Australians being enticed into work by still widely available job opportunities," he said.

Overall, he said the "still bountiful employment growth", even if it was possibly supply driven, would still keep the Reserve Bank on edge about possible wage pressures and firmer consumer spending.

"Next week's June quarter consumer price index will 'make or break' the case for an August interest rate increase," he said.

Diana Mousina, AMP deputy chief economist, said the RBA would probably view the unemployment data as indicating that the labour market was still a bit "tight".

"The Reserve Bank meet later in August and we expect another 0.25 per cent rate hike, which would take the cash rate to 4.6 per cent," she said.

"This view is mostly premised on an expectation that next week's June quarter inflation figures will show trimmed mean inflation that is just way too high — running at 3.8 per cent over the year when the RBA is targeting 2.5 per cent."