Brazil's Foreign Policy Faces Defense, Critical Minerals, and Digital Sovereignty Challenges

The defense area constitutes one of the main challenges of Brazilian foreign policy in the coming years. The sector will require greater attention from the country in view of the military action of the United States in Venezuela and an international context of increasing conflicts. The alert comes from Audo Faleiro, deputy chief advisor of the Special Advisory Office of the President of the Republic.

“The perception of vulnerability with the American military action, especially in the region, it placed, I think, another urgency for us to deal with this challenge,” said the advisor at the 2nd National Conference on Foreign Policy and International Insertion of Brazil, held at the Federal University of the ABC, in São Bernardo do Campo (SP), this week.

Faleiro, however, noted that he does not see any immediate threat to Brazil's oil reserves or its national nuclear program.

“I don't see an objective threat to Brazil today, as happened in Venezuela, this military action that was effectively to control Venezuela's oil reserves.”

The advisor highlighted, however, that Brazil will need to make a decision on whether or not to invest in the defense sector.

“We live with a permanent dilemma in Brazilian society, because some think that Brazil is a peaceful country, so no one will attack us, and we wouldn't need defense. Others think it's not worth investing in defense, because the military asymmetry is so great that nothing we can invest will reduce this distance,” he said.

According to the advisor, asymmetric conflicts, such as that between the United States and Iran, have shown a probable path forward given the dilemma. “The strongest does not always win, as long as you have a well-made deterrence capacity. I think it is fundamental to think about our situation regarding defense, Brazil is very vulnerable, that is evident,” he stressed.

Critical Minerals and Rare Earths

In addition to the defense sector, the deputy chief advisor listed five other challenges that Brazil will have to face in foreign policy in the coming years. According to Faleiro, critical minerals and rare earths, digital sovereignty, transnational organized crime, regional integration, and integration with African countries will require special attention until at least 2030.

Regarding critical minerals and rare earths, Faleiro assessed that the entire regulatory framework of the sector is very outdated. He noted, however, that the current administration is making an effort to create a National Council for Critical Minerals linked to the Presidency of the Republic.

“I think this is an area where we will need a lot of investment in developing strategies so that Brazil can master this special condition it has, of being the second largest holder of critical minerals,” he stated.

Organized Crime

On the issue of transnational organized crime, Faleiro said the country should be vigilant so that the subject is not manipulated for political purposes.

“The events of recent weeks show how the topic can be manipulated for political ends. We sensed this a little at the beginning of the term, and that's why Brazil competed for and won the directorship-general of Interpol. Today, the director of Interpol is a Brazilian delegate, from the Federal Police,” he said.

According to the advisor, Brazil will need to “come out of defense” on this issue and propose an agenda for combating organized crime in Latin America.

“I think that even those countries that orbit more around the new American administration today would have difficulty not working on an agenda to combat organized crime in the region,” he stressed.

Digital Sovereignty

Regarding digital sovereignty, the advisor said the country needs to hurry because it is behind. “Brazil was out of the loop when this issue evolved more rapidly. We arrived, we had missed the train of this discussion, and now we will need great investment in this front as well.”

Integration of Latin America and Africa

In addition to these four topics, Faleiro also cited the situation of Brazilian integration with Latin America and the Caribbean. In his assessment, Brazil's stance will be to do what is possible, given the fragmentation in the region.

“There are two factors that have greatly complicated the situation of regional integration. First, the election of [Javier] Milei in Argentina and, second, the result of the electoral process in Venezuela in 2024, which created a situation of cross-veto in the region and led to the paralysis of our attempt to rebuild Unasur [Union of South American Nations] and Celac itself [Community of Latin American and Caribbean States], which today cannot articulate for practically anything.”

As for African countries, the advisor assessed that Brazil is viewed with historical sympathy, created by Brazilian actions in the first two terms of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. But that other countries are currently more advanced in this relationship.

“Now, after ten years of abandoning Africa, we find Africa populated by other actors, with much more effective instruments for conducting foreign policy. I think we will need to rethink several of these instruments that we abandoned, especially the issue of cooperation.”

BRICS

Audo Faleiro also commented on the BRICS, a bloc composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Iran. According to him, the increase in the number of members in 2023 was a mistake and is currently causing the group's stagnation.

“I think it was a mistake. Today, BRICS are paralyzed because there is conflict between countries in the group [Iran and United Arab Emirates], militarily attacking each other. You haven't seen a statement from BRICS on the conflict in the Middle East to date, because it is not possible to have consensus within the group. So, I think this was a mistake, I don't know if it's possible to reverse it, probably not.”