China's Economy Stumbles in April Amid Iran War Fallout

China's economy stumbled in April with consumption, industrial output and investment growth missing expectations as the fallout from the Iran war dampened momentum in the world's second-largest economy.

Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, grew 0.2% last month from a year ago, sharply missing economists' forecast for a 2% rise and slowing from 1.7% in March, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. That marked the weakest level since December 2022.

China's industrial output jumped 4.1% in April from a year earlier, decelerating from 5.7% growth in March, and undershooting expectations for a 5.9% rise in a Reuters poll.

Urban fixed asset investment, including real estate and infrastructure, contracted 1.6% in the first four months this year, compared with a year earlier, compared with expectations for 1.6% growth. In the January to March period, urban investment had expanded 1.7% from a year earlier.

Urban unemployment rate edged lower to 5.2%, from 5.4% in March.

During a high-profile state visit by U.S. President Donald Trump last week, China agreed to purchasing at least $17 billion of American agricultural products in 2026 and the next two years, as well as an initial 200 jets from Boeing , according to a White House factsheet released Sunday.

The two countries also agreed to set up a U.S.-China Board of Trade and Board of Investment to address concerns over market access and expand trade under a tariff-reduction framework.

The Trump administration appears to be backing away from its earlier demand for deep structural reform of China's economy — a push to shift growth away from exports toward domestic consumption, said Dongming Xie, head of Asia macro research at OCBC Bank.

China's exports gathered pace in April as factories scrambled to meet surging overseas demand from foreign buyers racing to stockpile goods amid fears that the Iran war could push global input costs higher. Exports expanded 14.1%, sharply beating the forecast of 7.9% rise. Imports also notched another strong month, climbing 25.3% last month, versus expectation of 15.2%.

Washington and Beijing increasingly understand that a full-scale decoupling, or an "uncontrolled conflict" could impose enormous costs on their own economies, Xie said in a note on Monday.