Donald Trump Announces Deal to End US-Israel War on Iran, Details Emerge

Donald Trump says both he and JD Vance have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war the United States and Israel launched on Iran more than 100 days ago.

The US president said he signed a "great deal" with Iran and promised the Strait of Hormuz would soon be opened.

The speaker of the Iranian parliament, and former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf is believed to have signed on behalf of the regime.

In announcing the deal, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said both sides had declared an immediate and permanent end of all military operations.

But what is in the deal and how much has Iran gained in negotiations?

Mr Vance has said the details will be released before Friday, when the detail was expected to be formally signed in Geneva, while Mr Trump says the agreement will be released "pretty soon" after Friday.

Either way, there is some material being shared now that helps us understand the deal's possible scope.

Iranian state media has published a list of 14 points that it says make up the bulk of the deal.

A close inspection of those points helps us get a better picture of the final stage of the negotiations and what Iran is trying to gain.

For example, in the very last point, Iran says its support of its regional proxies has been definitively removed from the agenda.

Mr Vance cast doubt on the leaked proposal, saying he was "seeing a lot of fake information about a potential deal" on the weekend, but since the agreement was announced on Sunday, local time, the vice president has not pushed back on some of the 14 points.

In a recent, high-level briefing by senior US officials, Washington pushed back against some of the points while acknowledging others are part of the MOU.

Here are the 14 points, annotated with notes about how significant they would be and the likelihood they are part of the deal.

Point 1 — Permanent and immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.

A temporary ceasefire in Lebanon has been in place since April 16 and then renewed again in June, but strikes between Hezbollah and Israel have continued.

And even after this most recent deal was announced, Israel struck what it said were Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said: "The IDF will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza indefinitely … despite all the existing and future pressures."

Analysts believe Israel's action in Lebanon is one of the main stumbling blocks of any regional peace deal.

It's worth pointing out, Israel, Lebanon and Hezbollah are not parties to this deal.

Point 2 — US commitment to non-interference in Iran's internal affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Now, the deal has reportedly been signed by Mr Qalibaf — a former IRGC commander who led crackdowns on dissent in Iran.

In a briefing, US officials said it was Washington's belief that Iran was significantly weaker than it had been in decades.

Point 3 — Complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.

With the US blockade in place, and Iran effectively closing the nearby Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic at the outbreak of war, traffic levels plunged.

While some ships have been going "dark" to make the crossing, or engaging in "negotiations" with Iran, data seen by the ABC shows that traffic is still far below pre-war levels — driving up costs of energy across the globe.

Point 4 — US commitment to withdraw forces from around Iran.

There has not been much indication of the future of American bases in the region and what "around Iran" means exactly. The US has bases in several Gulf states and they were targeted by Iran during the war.

All US officials have said is that the agreement contemplates a reduction in military forces in the region upon a final deal, but that was conditional on Iran making certain concessions including on its nuclear program.

Point 5 — Reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days with Iranian arrangements.

There have been repeated mentions by the IRGC about a new system in the region where Iran and Oman will "regulate" the waterway. The regime told the ABC last month, there would not be a toll, but management of the strait of Hormuz will involve some "costs".

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said: "It's only natural that the services we provide, like navigation and the preservation of the ecosystem of the strait, the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will have costs."

US officials said they expected the strait would be open, without tolls specifically, for 60 days and for that to become part of the final agreement.

There is some indication from those officials that other regional arrangements over the strait are being discussed and that the US would be willing to entertain them during negotiations.

They also said the expectation was that traffic would return to normal within 30 days once there was a commitment to clear the area of any mines.

Ships have been taking a safe southern route through the strait, effectively hugging the coast of Oman, under the guidance of the US.

Point 6 — Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products and derivatives.

US officials have indicated this is part of the final deal too, saying if Iran complies, it will be welcomed back into the global economy.

They said sanctions relief is tied to Iran behaving appropriately and negotiating on its nuclear program. If they do, the US would be generous in opening up the Iranian economy, the officials said.

However, the Wall Street Journal and Reuters later reported the deal allowed Iran to begin selling oil and fuel immediately once it was signed. The outlets cited an unnamed US official, who said the agreement also covered services such as banking, transport and insurance to facilitate the sales.

And full access of Iran to its financial resources.

Tehran and the people of Iran have been dealt heavy economic blows throughout this war. Lifting sanctions on the sale of its most valuable resources would help replenish regime coffers.

Washington is of the opinion, Iran is weaker than it was before the war, but some analysts have warned sanctions relief would empower the regime.

Point 7 — The need for the US and its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $US300 billion.

There has been very minimal reaction from Gulf states since the deal between the US and Iran was announced.

These nations have Iran as a neighbour and have defended and suffered IRGC attacks throughout the war as energy infrastructure and American bases on their territory became targets.

The Trump administration has been critical of previous US administrations that included cash payments in deals with Iran and now appears to be indicating it will be Gulf states covering those transactions this time around.

Point 8 — 60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement [focused] on nuclear issues, the complete lifting of sanctions, resolutions of the UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors.

Point 9 — Reiterating Iran's commitment in the NPT not to produce nuclear weapons.

Under the NPT, Iran has the right to develop nuclear technology, including enrichment, for peaceful purposes and Iran says it would never produce nuclear weapons.

But, it is, however, the only country to enrich to 60 per cent without making an atom bomb, according to Reuters.

Mr Vance told NBC News the deal would see the US and the International Atomic Energy Agency help Iran destroy that enriched stockpile. He said that was spelled out very clearly in the deal.

Point 10 — During the negotiations, the US has committed not to increase its forces in the region and will not impose new sanctions.

Point 11 — Release of $US24 billion in blocked Iranian funds during the 60-day period of final negotiations. Half of this amount must be made available to Iran before the negotiations begin.

Point 12 — Establishing a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement.

Any final agreement would deal with much more than Iran's nuclear program, so there would be various elements to monitor. But on nuclear, Mr Vance did tell NBC News inspectors would be allowed back into Iran as part of the deal. There is no immediate reaction from Iran on that point.

In Gaza and Lebanon, strikes have continued despite post-ceasefire monitoring systems being in place.

Point 13 — The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council resolution.

Iran appears to want a level of guarantee that the US is going to stick to any agreement.

Mr Baghaei said the "final agreement is expected to be endorsed by a United Nations Security Council resolution after a period of approximately 60 days" noting Tehran "will learn from past experience".

The comment is a possible reference to the US pulling out of a previous nuclear deal.

"The adoption of a resolution will be essential," Mr Baghaei said. "But the most important and effective guarantee for the implementation of any commitment lies in the leverage and power we have identified over the past three months."

Point 14 — The final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of Iran's frozen funds, the suspension of Iran's oil sanctions, and the lifting of the naval blockade. The final agreement will be made solely on the fate of enriched materials and enrichment, the lifting of sanctions, and the Iranian economic reconstruction program. Discussions about Iran's missile program and support for resistance groups have been definitively removed from the agenda.

It's difficult to know the position from which the regime is making that statement. For example if those issues have been dealt with already or if they are not up for discussion at all.

The regime's support for resistance groups is perhaps the most significant because that no doubt relates to Hezbollah and the situation in Lebanon.

As many analysts have predicted, what happens there between Israel and Hezbollah could be the biggest indicator of whether a final agreement is reached or not.