El Niño Study: Crop Yields in India Could Drop Over 10% in Vulnerable Districts

El Niño is a climate pattern of warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern tropical Pacific.

NEW DELHI: With the shadow of El Niño looming large over India due to its potentially negative impact on monsoon, a study by a group of farm scientists from an ICAR institution shows that El Niño years in the past have reduced output of key kharif crops, such as paddy and maize, by more than 10% in 77 and 65 districts, respectively, in different states. The research, led by Subash N Pillai at the ICAR-Indian Institute of Farming Systems Research, notes that significant impact was observed on the output of the most popular kharif crop, paddy, in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, MP, Maharashtra, UP, Jharkhand and Odisha. Besides paddy and maize, yields of sorgh-um and pearl millets also declined by over 10% in 36 districts each during El Niño years.Researchers warn of over 10% crop loss in vulnerable districts El Niño is a climate pattern of warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern tropical Pacific. It is associated with weaker monsoon in India. The study, published in Climate Services journal by Elsevier in 2023, looked at three El Niño years — 2002, 2004 and 2009 — and may provide insights to policymakers and other stakeholders in preparing short- and long-term contingency plans to cope with the situation. “The study revealed that El Niño years cause significant spatial and temporal variability in Indian summer monsoon rainfall, leading to substantial reductions in the productivity of major kharif crops such as rice, maize, pearl millet and sorghum across several districts of India. It identified many highly vulnerable districts where crop yields declined by more than 10% during recent El Niño years, emphasizing the need for climate-resilient agricultural planning at the district level,” Pillai told TOI on Sunday. Pillai, currently serving as head of the division of Agricultural Physics at ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, said, “As El Niño conditions are likely to prevail this year, policymakers should strengthen contingency planning through promotion of drought-tolerant crop varieties, weather-based agro-advisory services, efficient water management and location-specific adaptation strategies to minimise agricultural losses and safeguard farmers’ livelihoods. ”