Former Trump Adviser: Little Incentive for Pyongyang to Talk, But Diplomacy Possible if Conditions Change

There currently is little incentive for Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table over its nuclear weapons, yet diplomacy may be possible if strategic conditions change, a former security adviser to U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday.

"Our strategy should be to identify and encourage imbalances in the North Korean strategy and reposition the nuclear program -- not as a pathway to stability, but so that denuclearization is the most optimal, more positive pathway," Alex Wong, global chief strategy officer at Hanwha Group, said at a Jeju Forum session, titled "Lessons from 2018-2019 and the Way Forward: How to Re-Engage with the DPRK."

Before joining Hanwha, Wong served in the second Trump administration as principal deputy national security adviser, coordinating U.S. policy across defense, intelligence and international relations.

The conditions for renewed talks simply do not exist right now, he said.

Pyongyang's closer ties with Moscow, the confidence the North has gained from surviving sanctions through the COVID-19 pandemic years and the major powers' preoccupation with other global crises have collectively narrowed the space for engagement, Wong argued.

There still may be a potential window for diplomacy if circumstances change, he noted.

"Conditions can change very quickly," Wong said, pointing to Trump's lingering interest in engaging North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung's stated openness to dialogue.

"Kim Jong-un understands that he has a window of opportunity that will close when President Trump leaves office," he said.

Looking back on the Trump-Kim meetings in 2018-19, Wong said the negotiations fell short because North Korean working-level officials lacked sufficient authority.

North Korean negotiators "were not fully empowered to represent the entire position" of their government, he said.

He also dismissed the idea of accepting North Korea as a de facto nuclear state, saying the cost would extend far beyond the Korean Peninsula.

"Granting recognition of a new nuclear power will have consequences globally that I do not think are wise to invite," Wong said.

With no formal diplomatic relations between Washington and Pyongyang, he stressed the case for back channels.

"It is necessary to have those informal channels to build trust, pass messages, lay groundwork, to be a release valve."