India's Birth Rate Falls Below Replacement Level, SRS Report Shows

India's total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.9 from 2.1, according to the 2024 Sample Registration System (SRS) report, pushing most Indian states below the replacement fertility level of 2.1 children per woman. Only six states — Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand — continue to remain above the replacement mark, while Delhi recorded the country’s lowest TFR at 1.2.

The replacement fertility level of 2.1 is considered the benchmark at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next. Experts warn that if fertility remains below this level for a prolonged period, population growth could slow sharply and eventually turn negative.

The report revealed that Bihar saw the slowest decline in fertility rates over the past decade, with its TFR dropping just 9.4% — from 3.2 in 2012-14 to 2.9 in 2022-24. Chhattisgarh and Assam also recorded relatively small declines of 11.5% and 13%, respectively. In contrast, Delhi and Tamil Nadu, which already had low fertility rates, witnessed steep declines of 29.4% and 23.5%.

States that crossed below replacement fertility levels over a decade ago are now witnessing a shrinking young population. Tamil Nadu has only 18% of its population in the 0-14 age group, compared to 31.5% in Bihar. Across India, children aged 0-14 account for nearly 24% of the total population.

Despite falling fertility rates, India’s working-age population continues to expand. People aged 15-59 now make up 66.4% of the country’s population, up from 64% in 2014, indicating that India’s demographic dividend is still active — though experts believe this window may begin closing soon.

Meanwhile, India’s elderly population is steadily rising. The proportion of people aged above 60 increased from 8.6% to 9.7% over the last decade. Kerala has the highest share of senior citizens at 15%, while Tamil Nadu recorded the sharpest rise in the 60+ population during this period.

Fertility and population expert Prof Arokiasamy Perianayagam said India is likely to witness a faster decline in fertility rates in the coming years. However, he noted that population growth will continue for some time due to the large number of young people currently in the reproductive age group.