Indonesia Blocks Polymarket Over Presidential Exit Wagers

Indonesia blocked access to Polymarket after the prediction market platform hosted wagers on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office before the end of his term.

Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs (Komdigi) announced the block on Friday, describing Polymarket as an “online gambling site disguised as a prediction market.”

"The government will not allow any form of online gambling in Indonesia,” ministry official Alexander Sabar said, adding: “Activities like Polymarket involve betting and speculation on uncertain outcomes, thus violating Indonesian law.”

The move adds Indonesia to a growing list of jurisdictions treating prediction markets as gambling products, not merely forecasting tools, as platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi face mounting legal scrutiny worldwide.

Political bets trigger scrutiny

The government action came days after Polymarket opened a wager tied to Prabowo’s presidency, allowing users to bet on whether the Indonesian leader would leave office early.

One of the markets, which appeared on Polymarket on May 21, lets users bet on whether Prabowo would leave office before several future dates, including May 31, June 30 and Dec. 31, 2026, even though his five-year presidential term is set to run until October 2029.

Source: Polymarket

The market recorded more than $46,000 in trading volume, with traders pricing a 1% chance of him leaving by May 31, 2% by June 30 and 18% by the end of 2026.

The ministry’s statement did not specifically reference the presidential exit prediction market, instead broadly characterizing Polymarket as a gambling platform operating in violation of Indonesian law.

Source: Indonesia’s Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs (Kemkomdigi)

“As a measure to protect the public, especially the younger generation and users of the national digital space, the Ministry of Communication and Digital has blocked access to the Polymarket platform and similar services that are suspected of facilitating online gambling practices,” it said.

Prediction markets face global pressure

The Indonesian ban adds to growing regulatory pressure on prediction market platforms across multiple jurisdictions.

Supporters say prediction markets function as tools for crowd-sourced forecasting and sentiment tracking, while critics argue they can resemble online gambling and raise concerns around market manipulation as well as insider trading.

Related: CFTC officials who questioned prediction markets were suspended: NYT

India was among the latest countries to restrict access to Polymarket, extending a list of jurisdictions where the platform is blocked to more than 30. Despite the restrictions, Polymarket has recently signaled interest in pursuing regulatory approval in select markets, including Japan.