Mexico's National Football Team Faces Knockout Stage Anxiety

In Mexico, the phrase ya merito (“almost there”) is closely linked to the country’s men’s football team.

In Mexican Spanish, it’s a colloquial, almost affectionate expression; a way of describing something that’s close enough to touch, but that can never quite be reached. Now the phrase seems to capture something more profound about Mexico’s national team – shorthand for El Tri’s habit of not exactly failing, but always just falling short.

That’s because Mexico’s World Cup history has been marked by decades of defeats in the first-stage of the knockout rounds. Exactly the round Mexico will be playing in for their Tuesday matchup against Ecuador. And the country is on edge.

Since 1994, Mexico have made it to the knockouts – and then fallen at the first hurdle. The only exception was in Qatar when they didn’t even make it out of the groups. The last time Mexico made it to the now mythical “fifth game” was their quarter-final appearance in 1986, which was also the last time the World Cup was held on home soil.

A familiar anxiety that this fourth game will be Mexico’s last at this tournament is building across the nation.

At Tuesday’s game, in the hallowed Azteca Stadium, Ecuador will be coming off an impressive 2-1 victory against Germany. The upset proved the South American team are a dangerous opponent. They have a world-class squad featuring defender Willian Pacho from Champions League winners PSG, Piero Hincapié of Arsenal, and Chelsea’s Moisés Caicedo. On paper, they appear to be better than Mexico, or at least more expensive given their market value in Europe. However, Javier Aguirre’s team has demonstrated their collective strength, with Mexico yet to concede a goal so far this tournament. Based on the teams’ form, it will be one of the last-32’s most evenly match games.

What Mexico have that Ecuador don’t, though, is an electrifying winning streak. So far in the tournament, Mexico’s record is three games played, three games won. It’s El Tri’s best performance in a World Cup group stage ever.

But with all that excitement about Mexico’s performance, comes fear. The fundamental question remains unanswered: will the national team’s control and consistency in the early rounds be enough to withstand the pressure of the knockout stages?

Football analyst and former Argentina striker Jorge Valdano said the main hurdle for Mexico is psychological. The team is strong, he said recently on Mexico’s TV Azteca, predicting “a duel between two solid defenses” that “feels like one of those neighborhood pickup games that just keeps going until it gets dark – and the next goal wins.”

Confidence, Valdano believes, is the only thing that can conquer the terror of – once again – not making it to the fifth game.

One player who knows a lot about this tension is Javier Cruz, who played for Mexico at the 1986 World Cup. Known in Mexican soccer as El Abuelo (“The Grandfather”), Cruz was cautious about speculating what might happen in Tuesday’s game. But in an interview with the Guardian, he said that Mexico’s three wins could be habit forming: the players may just get used to winning.

Cruz knows Aguirre and said the coach is adept at managing expectations. “He takes it one game at a time. Every match is a challenge. That’s how it should be done: step by step.”

Aguirre, in his own way, has tried to downplay Mexico’s problems in the knockouts. He coached the national team in 2002 and 2010 and in both cases, the team was eliminated in the round of 16. He understands the nature of this pattern better than most. And perhaps that’s why he has tried to strip it of its symbolic weight. In his public statements he has repeatedly emphasized process over future performance.

“I don’t like overconfidence,” he said at a recent press conference. “I’m very meticulous with my team, humble in defeat and in victory. He added that this edition of the team features “young men who grew up without complexes, who believed in themselves from a young age. The pressure of the game doesn’t faze them, the stage doesn’t scare them.” It’s a new generation, he said, “the future.”

And, Cruz emphasized, it bears remembering that knockout wins are not something wholly unfamiliar to Mexico. “We already played that ‘fifth game’ at home 40 years ago, so it is possible to achieve it,” he told the Guardian.

In 1986, the team reached the quarter-finals before losing to Germany in a penalty shootout. On Tuesday, Mexico will once again attempt to transform “almost there” into something entirely different.

Recently in Mexico, the phrase, “I know it won’t happen, but what if it does?” has gone viral. It encapsulates the moment perfectly: a nation expecting defeat, but still holding out hope.