Nomura Projects 6.8% Growth for India in FY27, Sees Slowdown in First Half
GDP growth expected to moderate to 6.3-6.7% in H1FY27 before recovering to 7.1-7.2% in H2, with Iran conflict posing key risk
L'essentiel
- Nomura forecasts 6.8% full-year GDP growth for India in FY27, with growth moderating to 6.3-6.7% in the first half due to supply disruptions before recovering to 7.1-7.2% in H2.
- The brokerage cites supportive factors including policy easing, easing trade tensions, and government measures like fuel tax cuts and MSME credit guarantees.
- Key risks include prolonged disruptions from the Iran conflict and persistently high oil prices.
Résumé généré par IA
Pourquoi c'est important
India's economy has been showing resilience with FY26 GDP growth expected at 7.6% according to official estimates. The projection for FY27 indicates a moderation but still represents solid growth above 6%.
New Delhi: India's economic growth is expected to slow in the first half of FY27 due to supply disruptions, despite resilient demand, before recovering later in the year, Nomura said on Monday, projecting 6.8% growth for the full year.
The brokerage believes overall growth will remain relatively resilient despite constraints on manufacturing and services. Supportive factors include "the Goldilocks starting conditions," lagged impact of policy easing, and easing trade tensions with the United States, it said.
Further, it noted that the government has introduced targeted measures, such as fuel tax cuts, logistical support for exporters, and potential credit guarantees for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs).
Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to moderate to 6.3-6.7% in H1FY27, before rising to 7.1-7.2% in the second half, according to Nomura. India's FY26 GDP growth is expected at 7.6%, as per official estimates.
Nomura cautioned that prolonged disruptions due to the Iran conflict could have a larger, non-linear impact, and persistently high oil prices are increasing losses for oil companies. Although fuel price hikes are currently on hold, any increase after the state elections could add to inflation and weigh on growth. The conflict could impact the Indian economy through multiple channels, Nomura said.
À surveiller
Perspective IA — des possibilités, pas des certitudes
GDP growth will moderate to 6.3-6.7% in H1FY27
Probable · En quelques mois
Growth will recover to 7.1-7.2% in H2FY27
Possible · En quelques mois
Fuel prices may increase after state elections
Possible · En quelques mois
Questions ouvertes
- How severe will supply disruptions be in H1FY27?
- Will fuel prices actually increase after state elections?
- What specific MSME credit guarantee measures will be implemented?
