OECD Raises South Korea's 2026 Growth Outlook to 2.6% on AI Chip Boom
L'essentiel
- The OECD has raised South Korea's 2026 economic growth forecast to 2.6% from 1.7%, driven by robust chip exports amid the AI boom.
- May exports hit a record $87.8 billion, with chip exports soaring 169.4%.
Résumé généré par IA
Pourquoi c'est important
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has revised South Korea's economic growth outlook upwards, primarily due to strong performance in chip exports driven by the artificial intelligence boom. This revision aligns with projections from the Bank of Korea and surpasses estimates from the Korea Development Institute.
By Kang Yoon-seung
SEOUL, June 3 (Yonhap) -- The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Wednesday raised South Korea's economic growth outlook for this year to 2.6 percent from 1.7 percent three months earlier, citing the country's robust chip exports amid the artificial intelligence boom.
The Paris-based organization said the country's outbound shipments of chips are expected to continue driving economic growth.
South Korea's exports surged 53 percent from a year earlier to a new monthly high of US$87.8 billion in May, driven by the semiconductor super cycle.
Seoul's chip exports soared 169.4 percent on-year to an all-time monthly high of $37.2 billion in May. It marked the third consecutive month that chip exports exceeded the $30 billion mark.
In detail, outbound shipments of DRAM and NAND flash memory jumped 369.8 percent and 206.8 percent to $18.6 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively.
The upward revision is in line with the outlook of the Bank of Korea and is above the 2.5 percent estimate of the Korea Development Institute.
According to the Ministry of Finance and Economy, the OECD said the chip industry is expected to maintain solid exports while leading domestic investment.
On the economic growth outlook for 2027, the OECD projected growth of 1.9 percent, down 0.2 percentage point from the March projection.
Touching on inflation, the OECD projected consumer prices in South Korea to rise 2.6 percent in 2026, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous report.
The inflation outlook for 2027 came to 2.2 percent, up 0.2 percentage point from the March estimate.
The OECD said South Korea's efforts to cap oil prices, along with measures to cut fuel prices, have eased inflation, although the organization suggested phasing out such programs, noting they could increase the persistence of inflationary pressure.
The OECD, meanwhile, lowered the growth outlook for the global economy by 0.1 percentage point to 2.8 percent, noting it has been under pressure from higher energy prices and supply disruptions at the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
À surveiller
Perspective IA — des possibilités, pas des certitudes
South Korea's chip industry will maintain solid exports and lead domestic investment.
Très probable
OECD will suggest phasing out oil price capping programs in South Korea.
Très probable · Immédiat
Questions ouvertes
- What specific measures will South Korea take to sustain its chip export momentum?
- How will the suggested phasing out of oil and fuel price capping programs affect inflation persistence?
- What are the specific risks associated with the supply disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz?
- What is the projected impact of the AI boom on other sectors of the South Korean economy?
