Oil Prices Cool Down as Hopes Rise for US-Iran Deal and Strait of Hormuz Reopening

After repeatedly soaring beyond the $100 per barrel mark amid the Middle East conflict, oil prices have finally begun to cool down, inching near the $75 level seen before the conflict.

This week, for the first time crude since early March, crude prices have tumbled below $80 as hopes surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement lifted sentiments.

Around 7 am IST, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $76.46 per barrel, while Brent crude stood at $79.41 per barrel.

Before the US-Iran conflict, crude prices stood at near $70 per barrel.

Since the peace agreement announcement, both benchmarks had fallen by around 5%, touching three-month lows amid expectations that a US-Iran deal could pave the way for the resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment told Reuters, "Oil markets retreated on expectations ⁠the Strait of Hormuz would reopen following the peace agreement, but traders held off further selling pending details," Kikukawa added that WTI crude was likely to remain volatile, fluctuating within a range of $10 above or below $80 a barrel.

US President Donald Trump said the deal would prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, while a US official stated that it would permit Iran to resume oil sales once the agreement was signed.

The memorandum of understanding, which has not yet been made public, extends a fragile ceasefire first announced in April by another 60 days, allowing time for negotiations aimed at securing a permanent truce.

Under the proposed arrangement, the United States would lift its blockade of Iran's ports, while Tehran would permit oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively remained blocked since US and Israeli strikes on 28 February.

However, industry officials have cautioned that restoring production and refining activity to pre-war levels could take weeks, months, or even years.

At the same time, uncertainty over the durability of the truce also persisted as Israel distanced itself from both the April ceasefire and the latest US-Iran agreement.

Meanwhile, US intelligence agencies have cautioned that Iran now possesses the capability to effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz whenever it chooses, according to a CNN report citing sources familiar with the assessments.

"We have now handed Iran de facto control over the strait – a weapon more powerful than any nuke," one source familiar with the US intelligence assessments said, as cited by CNN.

The intelligence findings suggested that Iran's actions during the recent conflict had demonstrated both the intent and capability to close the strategically important waterway, through which 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas exports transit.