Population ageing: New research challenges conventional wisdom on economic impact
L'essentiel
- New research suggests population ageing's economic impact may be less about labour shortages and more about its effect on total factor productivity (TFP).
- The "silver dividend" of older workers staying in the labor market longer could offset negative growth impacts.
Résumé généré par IA
Pourquoi c'est important
Population ageing is a growing global trend, affecting even developing countries. Conventional economic thought links ageing to labour shortages and constrained productive capacity.
Population ageing is fast becoming a global phenomenon. Even regions currently enjoying youthful demographics will eventually undergo demographic transition – and this is increasingly relevant for developing countries too.
Conventional wisdom holds that population ageing inevitably leads to labour shortages, which in turn constrain productive capacity. But new research is casting fresh light on this assumption.
Two key findings stand out. First, the so-called silver dividend – whereby older workers remain in the labour market longer – could mitigate ageing’s drag on economic growth. Second, the adverse effects of ageing arise not from a shrinking labour force per se, but from its detrimental impact on total factor productivity (TFP) growth.
TFP refers to an economy’s ability to generate outputs or income from inputs such as labour and capital; it is higher when a country raises its income without using more inputs, or sustains its income level with fewer.
Questions ouvertes
- What specific policies can encourage the 'silver dividend'?
- What are the primary drivers of TFP decline associated with ageing?
- How do different developing countries' contexts affect these demographic transitions?
