Prediction Market Traders Expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to Fall Further Amid Sell-Off

In brief

Prediction market traders think Bitcoin and Ethereum are headed even lower as markets sell off.

Traders now strongly favor dumps to $55,000 for BTC and $1,500 for ETH before any rebounds.

The market's near-term fate may hinge on the performance of STRC, the preferred equity offering from Bitcoin behemoth, Strategy, according to one analyst.

Prediction market traders are becoming increasingly bearish on near-term price action for Bitcoin and Ethereum, expecting downwards momentum to carry them further downwards towards $55,000 and $1,500, respectively.

Traders on Myriad—a prediction market platform operated by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan—place odds of a Bitcoin dump to $55,000 before a rise to $80,000 at 77%, and odds of an Ethereum drop to $1,500 before a jump to $3,000 at 88% as markets sell off on Thursday.

The bearishness has been accelerating over the course of the last month, with odds of Bitcoin’s dump to $55,000 jumping 44% on Myriad in that time. As it stands, Bitcoin has fallen to $59,511, around a 1% drop in the last 24 hours and now 23% in the last month of trading. Bitcoin dipped to nearly $58,000 earlier Thursday, its lowest price since 2024.

The plunge is being amplified in traditional markets as well, as shares in Strategy (MSTR), Bitcoin’s leading treasury firm, have fallen even further, dropping nearly 7% since trading opened on Thursday to change hands around $88.

Shares in the firm have now fallen nearly 45% in the last month, while STRC—its preferred equity offering that is designed to trade around a par value at $100—is now down 22% in the last month, recently trading around $77. STRC touched an all-time low of $73.62 soon after the opening bell on Thursday.

“On a short-term basis, STRC is the tail wagging the Bitcoin dog,” Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told Decrypt.

“While there are also macro factors at work—rising concerns about inflation, worries about rate hikes, etc.—the market can't keep its eyes off STRC trading in the $70s,” he added. “It's worried Strategy will enter some kind of death spiral and be forced to sell Bitcoin. This pressure will likely continue until Strategy clarifies how it plans to deal with the issue.”

As the market projects its fears into prices, analysts have noted that the firm’s best path forward may be shoring up its cash position, providing it more runway to pay dividend obligations, ultimately easing shaky investors.

The second-largest crypto asset has not been spared, with Ethereum sinking to $1,576—a drop of 2.6% in the last 24 hours, fueling a more than 25% plunge in the last 30 days. At its current mark, ETH sits just 5.2% above its resolution point of $1,500 on Myriad. According to Hougan, ETH is “mostly caught in the crossfire” as “collateral damage” amid the STRC concerns.

Traders on other prediction market platforms are similarly pointing to more long-term bearishness on top crypto assets, as well. Kalshi markets that ask how low Bitcoin and Ethereum will go during 2026 give BTC a 36% chance of falling below $40,000, plus a 34% chance of ETH falling below $1,000.

Bitcoin is currently nearly 53% off its all-time high of $126,080 set last October. Meanwhile, ETH is more than 68% off its all-time high of $4,946 from last August.