Queensland Labor wins Stafford by-election, but primary vote tumbles

Queensland Opposition Leader Steven Miles can breathe a little easier after this by-election win in Stafford.

If Labor had lost, it would have sent alarm bells ringing through his caucus and made it extremely difficult for the one-time premier to stay on as leader.

But with the win, Mr Miles's leadership appears safe, for now at least, with no change imminent.

That's not to say every MP wants him to remain as Labor leader until the next election in 2028.

Some definitely want a change in strategy after this by-election result, which saw Labor's primary vote tumble.

But there is also a view Mr Miles should be given more of a chance and time at the helm, with some firmly backing him.

Stafford is historically safe Labor territory. It's an electorate the party has won in every poll this century, except for the Newman landslide of 2012.

As Mr Miles quipped yesterday, "a win is a win" — so, in a way, it is good news for the opposition leader that Luke Richmond managed to reclaim Stafford, after Labor sent late former MP Jimmy Sullivan to the crossbench last year.

The bad news is Labor suffered a 4.1 per cent swing away from it to the LNP on the two-party preferred vote, reducing its margin to a wafer thin 1.2 per cent.

The party's primary vote also plunged from the roughly 39 per cent it recorded in 2024 to about 31 per cent.

That's according to the latest count.

If that same 4.1 per cent swing was replicated across the state at the next election, Labor would lose a string of seats to the LNP, allowing the government to boost its majority even further.

Labor seats at risk with such a swing include shadow transport minister Bart Mellish's Aspley electorate and high-profile frontbencher Meaghan Scanlon's Gaven district.

Mr Miles suggested the fall in Labor's support was due to a splintering of the vote among a number of left-of-centre candidates.

In total, there were nine candidates listed on the ballot, including those representing the Greens, the Animal Justice Party, and Legalise Cannabis Queensland.

The reality is there is a factional log jam within the Labor caucus.

None of the potential leadership replacements, including Cameron Dick from the right and Shannon Fentiman from the left, have the outright numbers to take the top job.

Mr Dick, Ms Fentiman, and Grace Grace — who leads the old guard faction — all publicly declared their support for Mr Miles yesterday.

One Nation a missing ingredient

Obviously, the LNP would have much rather have won the seat than lost it.

But the party seemed exceptionally pleased nonetheless with the swing it achieved given its historical track record in Stafford.

When the LNP won government in 2024, it largely did this off the back of seats it picked up in the regions.

Within the Brisbane City Council area itself, the LNP did not win any new seats beyond those it already held.

So making inroads in Brisbane is crucial for the party if it wants to grow its majority and expand its appeal.

One missing ingredient in this by-election, though, was One Nation.

The resurgent minor party did not contest the Stafford poll.

And it raises questions about the impact One Nation could have had on the LNP's primary vote if it had run.

Ultimately, the LNP managed to lift its share of the vote by two points to 40 per cent in this by-election.

Premier David Crisafulli denied yesterday that One Nation's absence was helpful for the government.

We will find out if that holds true in the general election in October 2028, when One Nation candidates are expected to run across the state.