Southwest Monsoon Arrives in Kerala Amid Below-Normal Rainfall Forecast

The southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday, marking the start of India's four-month rainy season that is critical for agriculture, water supplies and inflation management.

"The southwest monsoon has further advanced into the remaining parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, some parts of westcentral and eastcentral Arabian Sea, entire Lakshadweep islands, Kerala and Mahe, some parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, remaining parts of Comorin area, southeast Bay of Bengal and some more parts of southwest, westcentral, eastcentral and northeast Bay of Bengal today the 4th June, 2026," the IMD said.

The IMD issued an orange alert in Alappuzha, Kottayam and Ernakulam districts on Thursday morning, warning of thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rain and surface wind speeds of up to 40 kmph.

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The weather agency also forecast thunderstorms with moderate rainfall and winds reaching 40 kmph in Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Idukki and Thrissur districts. Earlier, it had issued an orange alert in eight districts of the state ahead of the monsoon's arrival. An orange alert indicates very heavy rainfall between 11 cm and 20 cm.

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Last week, the IMD forecast below-normal rainfall for the 2026 monsoon season. The weather office revised its all-India seasonal rainfall estimate to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) and said El Niño conditions are likely to emerge during the monsoon months, raising concerns about rainfall distribution and crop output.

The monsoon delivers nearly 70% of India's annual rainfall and remains crucial for the farm sector, which supports millions of livelihoods.

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The kharif season, which begins in June, accounts for more than half of India's foodgrain output, making the performance of the monsoon a key factor influencing farm production and food inflation.

A weak or uneven monsoon can affect crop production, rural demand and food inflation, while a favourable rainy season can support farm incomes and help ease pressure on food prices.

The southwest monsoon normally advances northward from Kerala and covers the entire country by mid-July.